Impact of US ...
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In that sense, what has changed under Trump—as in previous presidencies—is the manner of implementation and the instruments deployed, not the nature or strategic weight of US interests themselves. This, of course, does not diminish the importance of changing tools in achieving these goals.
Against this backdrop, the new National Security Strategy is unlikely, in and of itself, to have any direct impact on future relations within the region—either among Middle Eastern states or between them and the wider world. The determining factor shaping the foreign policies and relations of the regional states remains their national interests, which in recent years have grown more influential even as the role of international forces and global context has waned.
The only potential effect is that the “relative reduction of Washington’s attention to the region” may offer Middle Eastern governments broader room for maneuver—evident, for example, in the opening of what is now the largest US consulate in the world, located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
Yet one exception stands out that is Iran. In this case, the influence of Israel on US policy is expected to continue shaping Washington’s approach.