Qatar pursuing preventive ...
Page 1
Iran’s recent positions on Hormuz also indicate that Tehran views security, economic and diplomatic issues as interconnected and is unwilling to completely separate them.
Given the economic, security and political costs of the continuing impasse between Iran and the US for both sides, as well as its consequences for regional countries, what could be the most realistic path out of the current situation? Could mediation by regional countries such as Qatar, Oman and Pakistan help lay the groundwork for a new understanding?
The most realistic way out of the impasse is neither to wait for one side to surrender nor to hope for an immediate comprehensive and major agreement. The experience of Iran-US relations has shown that major agreements usually become possible when a limited path for crisis management has first been established.
In my view, a solution could be pursued in three stages.
First, the two sides should agree on an immediate reduction in tensions and crisis management, particularly in the area of maritime security and preventing the conflict from spreading.
Second, there should be limited, reciprocal confidence-building measures. The US should provide a practical indication of its readiness to ease its pressure policy, while Iran should declare its readiness to enter a defined political process.
Third, phased negotiations should begin. Rather than attempting to resolve all disagreements in a single round, such negotiations should initially focus on manageable issues and then move on to more complicated matters.
Within this framework, Qatar, Oman, Pakistan and even Turkey can play an important role. Qatar, because of its close ties with the US and its active channels with Iran; Oman, because of its long and trusted record of mediation; and Pakistan, because of its geopolitical position and ties with different parties, can create a complementary mediation network. However, it must be emphasized that no mediation effort can replace the political will of Tehran and Washington. A mediator can only open the door; walking through it requires a decision by both sides.
In my view, if Washington is genuinely seeking an agreement, it should move away from a policy of “pressure without a political horizon,” while Tehran should demonstrate that it views diplomacy not as a sign of weakness, but as one of the instruments of national power.
Today, there may not be the best opportunity for a comprehensive agreement, but it is possible to establish a “minimum understanding to prevent a maximum crisis.” And it is precisely at this point that active mediation by Qatar, Oman and Pakistan can take on strategic importance.