End of Iran-US ...
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Therefore, even if Trump did not initially insist that the MOU had come to an end, an escalating crisis could ultimately place him on a path toward formally declaring its termination. The end of that understanding would, in effect, amount to a declaration of war.
How will the latest developments affect the role and effectiveness of mediators? Can countries such as Qatar continue to play a meaningful role in facilitating dialogue, particularly after the attack on one of its vessels and Doha's critical response?
Mediators generally begin their work under difficult circumstances and strive to bring disputes to a conclusion. Pakistan and Qatar have already demonstrated this. Despite the considerable distance between the positions of Iran and the United States, the two countries succeeded in bringing them closer together.
However, every country has its own capacity. Qatar has traditionally maintained good relations with Iran and has played constructive roles in mediation efforts. If it feels that its efforts are not being appreciated or that it is being treated unfairly, it will undoubtedly withdraw. The withdrawal of such mediators would be a serious warning sign of a possible confrontation between Iran and the United States.
The parties to the dispute should not deprive themselves of the opportunity that mediators provide without taking into account the potentially negative consequences they may face in the future. Mediation is an important opportunity to prevent crises from escalating and an equally important mechanism for resolving them.
If mediators conclude that their efforts are producing no results, they may choose to step away from the negotiation process. In their absence, misunderstandings are more likely to increase, tensions may intensify, and the crisis could expand further.
If diplomacy comes to a halt, what are the most likely scenarios for Iran-US relations? Is there still room to manage tensions?
Tension management remains possible to some extent, but it cannot continue indefinitely. If diplomacy ultimately fails, the consequence will be confrontation. Such confrontations could remain confined to the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, or they could spill over into the territory of Iran and the Persian Gulf states.
What is certain is that no one knows how resilient Iran would be under such pressure, or how resilient the global economy would prove in the face of higher oil prices and the wider economic pressures that would follow.
Ultimately, both sides must abandon the belief that they hold the upper hand or can decisively dictate the outcome. These are mental constructs. What actually unfolds on the ground may differ significantly from what decision-makers in either Tehran or Washington expect.
When perceptions diverge from operational realities, decision-makers may find themselves drawn into a course of action whose outcome brings nothing but loss and damage to their own countries.