China leans toward ...
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Threatening to reduce or halt these purchases would amount to maximum pressure on Tehran. Likewise, China provides arms-related support to Iran, and cutting off that support would exert additional pressure.
At the same time, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China can back international guarantees in the form of resolutions. It can also cut deals with the United States. Regardless of geopolitical rivalry, Beijing and Washington remain economically interdependent and vulnerable to one another in key areas.
If China declines to act as guarantor or opts for a limited role, how would that affect the trajectory of negotiations and the balance among the actors involved?
This scenario appears more likely—that China would manage the process from behind the scenes rather than stepping in directly. In any case, the parties to the conflict in West Asia will continue along their path under pressure from regional actors who have been affected by the war.
At the same time, China’s absence from a direct role in Iran’s peace equation would not hinder Tehran-Beijing relations. Bilateral ties are already moving along their natural trajectory toward becoming strategic. Should conflict flare up again, China could still step in and play a significant role on the ground.