Iran-Turkey trade hits $13b as balance favors Ankara despite positive outlook
Trade between Iran and Turkey reached about $13 billion in the first 10 months of the current Iranian year, which began on March 21, with the balance favoring Turkey by nearly $3 billion, Jalal Ebrahimi, head of the Iran-Turkey Economy and Trade House, said in an interview with Iran Daily.
Ebrahimi said that despite challenges, the outlook for commercial ties between the two countries remains positive as trade grew 13% in the 10-month period.
Iran’s exports to Turkey totaled $5.66 billion in the timespan, accounting for 12.5% of Tehran’s total exports, he said. During the same period, Turkey’s exports to Iran topped $7.92 billion, meaning Turkey exported $2.921 billion more to Iran than it received.
Regarding trade prospects through the end of the Iranian year on March 21, 2026, Ebrahimi said no significant change in trade figures is expected due to the approaching Nowruz holidays and regional conditions.
He added that 77% of Iran’s exports to Turkey consist of commodities such as gas, fertilizer, aluminum, copper, rail and marine industry products, and steel products. Conversely, 72% of Turkey’s exports to Iran comprise gold, food industry products, machinery, auto parts, and grains.
“Excluding oil, condensates, and gas, the trade balance decisively favors Turkey because it holds a stronger industrial position,” Ebrahimi said. He explained that Turkey has modernized its factories using European technology and has increased both production and re-exports.
Turkey maintains its export flows even when facing domestic product shortages by sourcing goods from abroad, thereby retaining its customers, he said. “For example, when Iran halted tomato exports to control its domestic market, Turkish suppliers sourced tomatoes from other origins and captured Iran’s regional markets.”
Suitcase exports phenomenon
A portion of current exports is conducted through informal “suitcase trade” that is not registered in official statistics, Ebrahimi said.
“The phenomenon could be controlled by activating the capacity of free trade zones such as Maku and Aras (in northwestern Iran), but these opportunities have unfortunately not been sufficiently utilized.”
Turkey’s strategic view
Turkey has placed politics in the service of its economy, Ebrahimi said, recalling a statement by former Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu, “Wherever there is a Turkish trader, we will open a consulate or trade representation there.” As a result, Turkey maintains economic counselors in most countries worldwide, whereas Iran had such representations only in neighboring countries until recently.
Ebrahimi pointed to a period of successful trade with Turkey during the tenure of an effective economic counselor at Iran’s embassy in Ankara, when Iranian exports to Turkey rose to $15 billion.
He did not specify the exact period he was referring to. However, trade data show that Iranian exports to Turkey have reached around $15 billion at certain points, including in 2012 before the tightening of oil sanctions, and again in 2022 amid a surge in global energy prices.
“This demonstrates how crucial the presence and expertise of active trade counselors can be,” he said.
Regarding significant capacities to increase exports to Turkey, Ebrahimi said that beyond petrochemical products, Iran could export processed industries and tree-based products such as dates and figs, which Turkey repackages and re-exports to Europe. Iran also has strong potential to export oil byproducts such as grease and industrial oils to Turkey.
“Turkey is currently facing a crisis in its textile industry, with more than 350,000 small and large units closing due to rising production costs and wages,” Ebrahimi said.
Purchasing power has declined amid persistently high inflation in Turkey — official data show annual consumer price inflation running well into the double digits in recent years — although Ebrahimi did not cite a specific figure. “Nevertheless, Turkey has continued to perform successfully in tourism, with revenues projected to reach $62 billion in 2026,” he added.