Fresh initiatives needed ...
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What scenarios are conceivable for the future of Iran-IAEA relations? Is it possible to reach a new agreement? What prerequisites are necessary for such a deal?
Iran’s foreign policy needs new initiatives. Apart from consultations with regional players like Egypt, Qatar, and Oman, which have limited influence, Iran has not proposed any specific initiatives.
Simply asserting its rights under the NPT, which grants it the right to peaceful nuclear energy and enrichment, is not enough and will not achieve anything in the current complex global situation. Relying solely on regional mediation will not solve the problem either. Iran’s foreign policy toward the nuclear appears to have lacked creativity.
This inertia in foreign policy, distancing from the IAEA, Washington’s unilateralism, the lack of serious solutions, and the absence of regional treaties have created a deadlock that promises nothing good.
Iran must tie its interests to those of regional countries and create regional security pacts and establish regional nuclear consortiums.
If the case is referred to the UN Security Council, what possibilities and challenges lie ahead?
In this scenario, Iran might be able to count on China and Russia’s veto power. However, these countries voted against Iran in the UN prior to 2015, which led to the country being brought under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. They might do so again in a larger game with the US. As the old saying goes, countries have no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests, and the support of these two countries could diminish.
Iran’s alliance with Russia and China, despite having a strategic title, will not provide major assistance if the country is placed under Chapter VII due to the lack of military treaties and a joint defense clause. We are now facing a new US that is different from one under Obama and Biden. Today’s America prioritizes unilateralism in its policies and does not even rely on the UN Security Council’s final vote, making a mere consensus sufficient for it to take measures against Iran’s nuclear program.