Israel’s Somaliland gamble ...
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Studies by the Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations indicate that such actions, particularly at a time when Israel’s relations with the West are already strained over the Palestine and Gaza, could trigger heightened diplomatic criticism, reduced political coordination on African and Red Sea dossiers, and increased sensitivity in Washington and Brussels toward Israel’s regional conduct. As a result, this decision may generate new political and diplomatic costs for Israel rather than delivering a sustainable geopolitical gain.
Can this Israeli move be analyzed within the framework of its regional policies, particularly its approach toward Iran?
Israel’s decision can be systematically analyzed within the framework of its regional policies, especially its strategy to contain Iran’s regional influence. Analyses by the “Institute for National Security Studies” underscore that the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea form part of Israel’s peripheral security belt, an arena in which Iranian presence or the expansion of influence by aligned actors is viewed as a direct threat to Israel’s maritime security and strategic interests.
From this vantage point, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is not merely symbolic, but rather a geopolitical instrument designed to establish and entrench political-security access near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Reports published by the RAND Corporation and the Council on Foreign Relations suggest that Israel has, in recent years, sought to step up bilateral ties with actors along the Red Sea rim and in the Horn of Africa to monitor and constrain Iran’s regional penetration routes and its dealings with Tehran-aligned actors, including Yemen’s Ansarullah movement.
In the context of Israel-Iran rivalry, Somaliland’s importance exceeds its formal international legal weight due to its proximity to one of the world’s most sensitive energy and maritime trade chokepoints. Studies by the Brookings Institution emphasize that Israel’s Africa policy over the past decade has taken on an increasingly security-centric character, effectively becoming an extension of its regional deterrence posture vis-à-vis Iran.
At the same time, these sources caution that recognizing Somaliland, particularly in the absence of US and EU alignment, could impose significant diplomatic costs on Israel. Such a trajectory may undercut political coordination with Western allies and weaken Israel’s capacity to build international consensus against Iran, a development that raises serious strategic doubts about the overall effectiveness of this move.