Iran, Lebanon ceasefires ...
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A highly cautious approach is therefore required.
Indeed, Shiite leaders, including Sheikh Naim Qassem, have stressed that residents of southern Lebanon should refrain, for now, from returning to their villages and homes, given the risk that Israel could again breach the agreement and resume attacks. Reports also indicate that the ceasefire has already been intermittently violated.
It is important to note, however, that since the Iran and Lebanon files are closely intertwined, disruptions in one track can directly affect the other. As long as Iran-US negotiations continue to move forward, the Lebanon ceasefire can play a positive role and potentially yield favorable outcomes, with similar conditions taking shape in southern Lebanon. For instance, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a result of the ceasefire taking hold in southern Lebanon—something that had been a key demand of Iran.
At present, Israel is under pressure from the United States and appears unlikely to take steps that would derail the progress of ongoing tracks. While a ceasefire holds on the Iran front and negotiations continue, any Israeli deviation could provide Iran with leverage to reengage in actions that would once again increase pressure on Israel. Specifically, pressure could be reapplied via the Strait of Hormuz by disrupting maritime traffic, or Iran could signal a potential withdrawal from negotiations. Whether acknowledged or not, the Islamic Resistance in southern Lebanon is aligned with Iran in this conflict, and it is unlikely that Iran would abandon its regional ally under difficult circumstances.
Conversely, if the Iran negotiations fail to reach a conclusion, the Lebanon ceasefire would inevitably be affected as well.