Trump confused, lacks ...
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Nor are the consequences confined to energy markets. The war has driven up the cost of trade, disrupted air travel and introduced broader frictions across the global economy.
Against this backdrop, Washington appears to be operating without a clear exit strategy. It has turned to a combination of military pressure and media campaign aimed at framing the conflict as a victory. The episode surrounding the downing of a US fighter jet in Iran illustrates this approach. By announcing that American forces had rescued the pilot in a military operation, Trump sought to project control and success. Yet the facts on the ground tell a more complicated story: the pilot’s fate remains uncertain, while the operation reportedly came at the cost of twelve US aircraft, including two planes, several helicopters and drones.
The difficulty lies in the absence of a credible narrative of success. Without a clear strategy, Washington appears increasingly caught in a cycle of reactive measures. Each attempt to ratchet up pressure on Iran has instead compounded the challenges it faces. The trajectory suggests that the United States may ultimately be forced to withdraw from the region in disgrace under adverse conditions.
Trump’s latest approach points in that direction. It hinges on declaring victory in the media while sidestepping the realities of the battlefield, coupled with an escalation in attacks on Iran’s infrastructure. This comes even as Tehran has signaled that it will determine the timing of the war’s end.
Such escalation is not without precedent. Key infrastructure, including major industries such as Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel, as well as power and energy facilities, has already been targeted. Iran has responded to these strikes and has prepared a broader, pre-identified set of targets for potential drone and missile operations should such attacks continue. It has made clear that any further targeting of its infrastructure will be met with a decisive and consequential response.