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Will Lula change Brazil’s approach to China?
Policy Advisor at the E3G
Lula’s re-election, following a campaign in which he declared that Brazil was ‘nobody’s backyard’ and denounced foreign interference, will be welcomed in Beijing.
China retains a close partner in Latin America’s largest economy, at a time when most countries in the region have moved closer to the Trump administration. Lula shares China’s commitment to a multipolar international order with a stronger role for the Global South. That includes efforts within BRICS to reduce reliance on the US dollar in international trade, reform global financial institutions and expand climate finance for developing countries.
This partnership is underpinned by strong economic ties — ties so important they would have endured a Bolsonaro victory. China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009, driven by Brazilian exports of soybeans, iron ore and crude oil. In 2025, Brazilian exports to China reached $100 billion, compared with $38 billion to the US. This makes continued engagement with Beijing a priority for the powerful agribusiness sector, which is well represented in Congress and traditionally aligned with Bolsonaro and the political right.
Brazil was also the world’s largest recipient of Chinese investment in 2025, with Chinese firms expanding their presence in electricity infrastructure, manufacturing and mining. In the automotive sector, BYD and Great Wall Motor have established electric vehicle production facilities in Brazil, and Lula is pushing Chinese manufacturers to use more local suppliers and create jobs.
Brazil-China relations are likely to deepen during Lula’s fourth term, especially if the Trump administration continues to impose tariffs and other trade restrictions on Brazil.
Yet Lula is the ultimate pragmatist. He has always sought to maintain good relations with competing powers. Brazil and the US are already discussing a potential trade agreement that could include cooperation on critical minerals, a top priority for Washington as it tries to reduce dependence on China.
With the world’s second-largest rare-earth reserves, Lula is open to investment from both China and the US, provided it helps Brazil develop its own processing industries and move up the value chain.