Iran-Pakistan border ...
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Could Pakistan take steps to reduce this dependence? Certainly, expanding trade with China would help. However, this would be a lengthy, long-term process and is unlikely to have any significant impact on Pakistan’s policies in the short term. This is the reality that must be acknowledged.
Pakistan has played a mediating role in recent diplomatic efforts related to tensions between Iran and the United States. If the border disruption continues, how could this affect Tehran’s confidence in Islamabad’s role in regional developments?
The Supreme National Security Council should make the decision on this matter. However, if I were to offer my own assessment, I would say that Pakistan was never a particularly suitable mediator from the outset, given its financial dependence on the United States and its limited political and geopolitical weight internationally.
Qatar’s capacity to mediate between Iran and the United States is limited, as is Oman’s. Iran should instead look to members of the UN Security Council that are at least broadly aligned with its position, such as Russia and China. Russia, however, is also constrained by its own problems with the United States, which makes it a less suitable option. That leaves China as the only viable choice.
China could have served as a mediator, helping secure more tangible guarantees from the United States while genuinely fulfilling the role of a neutral intermediary.
If the border closure is the result of US pressure, it would clearly show that Pakistan had failed to uphold the principle of neutrality expected of a mediator in the international system. From a legal standpoint, it would then have little standing left as an intermediary between Iran and the United States.
As explained earlier, Pakistan’s capacity to mediate was already quite limited. But if the closure is indeed the result of American pressure, that would make the problem conclusive.