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AFC to introduce Nations League in shake-up of World Cup qualification
After initially announcing its intent to introduce such a competition last December, the AFC will – in a briefing to be presented to associations on Tuesday and seen by ESPN – detail a proposal to introduce a biennial Nations League from 2030. The new tournament would see the confederation’s participants split into three tiers, with 18 nations each in the first two and eleven nations sorted into three groups in tier three.
In World Cup-aligned editions – the first of which would take place in 2032-33 – nations would play six home and six away fixtures, with the top six finishers in the first tier automatically qualifying.
Those ranked seventh through tenth in the top tier would then enter a round-robin playoff for the confederation’s remaining two qualification slots, with the best two performing sides punching their tickets and the third-placed finisher moving into an intercontinental playoff.
Under the previous format utilized for the 2026 World Cup, the 18 nations that progressed to the third phase of qualifying were divided into three groups of six, with the top-two finishers in each automatically advancing to the World Cup and the next two-best sides advancing to a fourth-phase playoff.
In Asian Cup-aligned iterations of the proposed Nations League – the first of which would take place in 2030 and feature three home and three away fixtures under the plans, alongside a shift in the Asian Cup itself from 2031 to 2032 – every tier-one nation and the six highest-placed finishers in the second tier would qualify.
Regardless of the tournament it’s associated with, each edition of this new format would see the top-eight nations from the first tier advance into a knockout stage to determine an overall winner, with a home-and-away quarterfinal stage then followed by semifinals and a final staged in a central venue.
Automatic promotion and relegation between the tiers would occur for their top and bottom-two finishers at the conclusion of each biennial tournament, with further movement to be delivered via a playoff between the next four worst finishers in the higher tier and the next four best finishers in the lower tier.
There would be no regional or zonal split under the proposal, with the AFC citing the uneven number of nations per region/zone and a disparity in the level of competition as part of its reasoning, with teams divided into pots at the draw to aid in the creation of a balanced, algorithmically created fixture.
A standalone tournament not tied to Asian and World Cup qualifying, meanwhile, was rejected due to concerns surrounding costs and a lack of available matchdays.
To aid in the transition, the AFC has proposed a pilot tournament to be staged across 2028-29, with the results from preliminary joint qualifiers to divide the tiers, rather than FIFA rankings, to ensure equitable access for the first official iteration.
Under the pilot, the current World Cup qualification format of three groups of six in the top tier would be maintained, with the top two finishers in each group advancing to the 2030 tournament.
However, the next four best-finishing sides – as opposed to the third- and fourth-placed finishers from the 2026 format – would then advance to a playoff mimicking the proposed final model, with the two best-performing sides qualifying for the World Cup and the third-best moving into an intercontinental playoff.
Automatic promotion and relegation and playoffs would also be staged in this pilot to help determine the make-up of the tiers for the first official Nations League in 2030.