Ansarullah advances pave ...
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To what extent can Ansarullah’s ability to exert pressure on the Red Sea front affect the military and security calculations of the United States and the Israeli regime?
Any US action in the Red Sea, at least in the southern part of the Red Sea and below the Suez Canal, will be affected by Ansarullah’s presence. Statements made by US President Donald Trump show that he has been forced to accept their presence in new areas of western Yemen. When he says that the United States will not take action against the Houthis, it implies that Ansarullah has the ability to exert pressure on and threaten US military forces in the Red Sea.
There is also a precedent of the United States reaching understandings with the Houthis and observing a kind of undeclared ceasefire with the movement. This itself indicates Ansarullah’s superior ability to contain and control military activities in the Red Sea.
Israel will be heavily affected and will come under significant pressure from the expanded presence of Ansarullah forces in the southern Red Sea. Any movement of supplies to assist Israel through the southern Red Sea will no longer be possible. Therefore, Israel will most likely receive more forces, commercial supplies and various forms of oil and military assistance through the northern Red Sea and via the Suez Canal.
How have recent developments and the growing threats to Saudi Arabia’s interests and infrastructure affected Riyadh’s security calculations?
After the Strait of Hormuz came under the control of Iran, Saudi Arabia was forced to move its oil exports, as far as possible, through pipelines from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. One of the most important areas for both storage and exports is the port of Yanbu, which is located on the Red Sea.
The pressure exerted by Ansarullah, and its declared policy of “siege for siege and pressure for pressure,” is interpreted to mean that in response to pressure by Saudi Arabia and its allies on Yemeni ports such as Hudaydah or airports such as Sanaa International Airport, Ansarullah will also exert serious pressure and threats against Saudi ports and airports.
The most important ports in this regard will be Jeddah and Yanbu, located in western Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea, as well as the airports in Jeddah, Jizan and Najran in southern Saudi Arabia.
Therefore, Saudi Arabia will come under considerable pressure, as much of its commercial and military traffic through the Red Sea will be affected by Ansarullah’s threats. Oil exports and commercial air traffic to Saudi ports and airports will be severely restricted, placing significant pressure on the country’s economic activity.
If the current trend continues, what scenarios do you envisage for the future of Yemen and regional equations?
The expansion of Ansarullah’s presence and military capabilities in western Yemen, which in some areas could extend into southern Yemen, will create economic and energy problems for many countries. It can be said that most European countries will be affected, as will the United States, as well as African and Asian countries. Therefore, these countries will inevitably have to enter into talks with Ansarullah and reach new understandings.
Saudi Arabia will also have to sit down with Ansarullah and inevitably implement their demands.
At the same time, through the smart moves it has made, Ansarullah has steered most Yemeni tribes toward a moderate position or firm neutrality. This could help reduce Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s influence in Yemen and bring the movement closer to reaching intra-Yemeni agreements.
Some of the Pakistani forces hired by Saudi Arabia have been captured, and Pakistan will also inevitably have to reach understandings with Ansarullah in order to secure the release of its prisoners.
Turkey, which has entered into a trilateral understanding with Saudi Arabia, will also have to learn from its past experiences and approach the Yemenis in a spirit of understanding. Turkey’s, or the Ottoman Empire’s, past in Yemen was not a positive one. Given the defeat of Ottoman forces in Yemen, it is unlikely that Turkey would be willing to return to the failed experiences of the Ottomans in Yemen.