China edges into ...
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Iran’s explicit request for China to act as the guarantor of any potential agreement with the US has also played a role. Moreover, China’s successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 has given Beijing the diplomatic capital needed for broader regional engagement.
If China enters the mediation process or facilitates talks between Iran and the US, what advantages does it have over mediators like Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan?
China holds several distinct advantages. Its global weight and permanent seat on the UN Security Council give Beijing legitimacy and high‑level bargaining power that regional mediators lack. Additionally, China is the largest trading partner of both Iran and Persian Gulf states, providing it with durable economic leverage. Beijing is also the only major power with no military presence — and no colonial legacy — in the region, making it a more trustworthy option from Tehran’s perspective. China can offer large‑scale economic and security guarantees, whereas Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan are largely limited to narrower political assurances.
What are China’s main levers for influencing both sides? Can Beijing merely facilitate dialogue, or does it have the capacity to offer concrete incentives and guarantees for a lasting agreement?
China is not limited to setting the stage for dialogue; it possesses tangible levers to influence both sides. Its primary lever over Iran is Tehran’s economic dependence on China: discounted oil purchases, investment, and trade constitute some of Iran’s few vital economic lifelines under sanctions.
On the US side, Beijing can cash in on Washington’s desire to reduce tensions and wind down its Middle Eastern entanglements, offering incentives such as easing trade frictions in exchange for diplomatic progress.
How do you interpret Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent trip to China in this context?
Araghchi’s trip to China is highly significant, taking place just days before the anticipated September 24 meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in the United States. If mediation is indeed being considered, China needs to get a clear read on Tehran’s demands and red lines directly from Iranian officials. The visit provides a strategic opportunity for alignment ahead of a potentially decisive meeting.