Netanyahu faces uphill ...
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This leverage remains relevant and effective at the current stage. It factors into US calculations and affects the way Washington considers potential attacks and defines the targets it may strike.
This appears to be the most important factor in the current wartime equation. The reason the United States appears to prioritize diplomacy over Israel’s preferred approach is precisely Iran’s deterrent capability, its ability to regionalize the conflict, and the issue of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait which could also be added to this equation.
How do you assess the upcoming meeting between Netanyahu and Trump? Are the two sides seeking to narrow their differences and reach a common position on how to proceed with their approach towards Iran?
Trump’s remarks ahead of the visit—that the United States will not become more deeply involved in a war with Iran on the basis of Israeli intelligence—indicate that he prefers diplomacy.
The visit may therefore carry a risk for Netanyahu: rather than Israel persuading the United States to adopt its preferred course, Washington may seek to impose its own demands on Israel.
Given Trump’s remarks, the current regional atmosphere and the efforts being made by regional countries—including Oman’s new initiative to manage the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran, which some sources have said has shown initial signs of success and has been welcomed by countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—it appears that diplomacy and a negotiated settlement are the preferred options.
Netanyahu is unlikely to be able to persuade Trump, through the intelligence he is expected to provide, to launch an all-out war or enter into a full-scale conflict with Iran.