Iran-US ceasefire deal ...
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This multilateralism could help. At the very least, it would give Iran greater room for maneuver in future developments in the region.
If the proposal fails, how far could the fighting continue, and how likely is it to turn into an all-out war?
It is impossible to say with certainty. The United States has a window of opportunity until November to secure certain gains, whether military or political, and close the file. Given that the prospects for a Republican victory in the midterm elections are considerably weaker than those of the Democrats, this several-month window will be valuable to them if they have a broader military plan they want to carry out.
If they want to try to deploy boots on the ground or seize Iranian islands, they will certainly do so before November. If they can achieve a victory, they will have an upper hand in the midterm elections. If they fail to secure any impressive gains, however, then following a possible defeat in the November elections, they will no longer be able to do much, because Congress and the Senate will be controlled by the Democrats, and a vote to limit the president’s authority to wage wars would likely pass with a substantial majority.
Iran needs to play its trump cards. If it can manage Bab al-Mandab or secure concessions through a sharp increase in oil prices and other means, it should do so.
Otherwise, if the situation moves toward the period from September to late October, it will be very dangerous for Iran. The weakening of Iran’s air defenses in the south, the erosion of its missile strike capabilities because of the current limited clashes, and the region becoming more favorable for a ground invasion from September to late October are threats that Iran must take seriously.
But could the United States risk the deaths of thousands of marines to take over Iran’s southern islands? Yes. A one-term president and the US deep state might be willing to take such a risk to prevent damage to the country’s hegemonic power.