Hormuz will shape ...
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However, Washington appears to believe that maintaining a naval blockade while simultaneously carrying out military strikes against Iran would produce better results than launching another full-scale war. In that case, there would be no immediate need for a new military campaign.
However, it remains to be seen in practice whether Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz remains open proves accurate.
If the Strait is indeed open and commercial vessels are able to move freely, that would represent a major achievement for Trump, and he would likely carry out further military operations to protect that outcome.
If not, Trump is likely to pursue different attacks and new military operations to achieve that objective, potentially extending even to attempts to carry out a limited occupation of Iranian islands.
Another possibility is that Iran and the United States continue with their current dual-track approach—keeping negotiations and military strikes running in parallel. However, this scenario is unlikely to last. Trump is not known for his patience, and if he fails to achieve results, he is likely to shift to another option. Experience has also shown that Iran does not yield under this type of military pressure or offer concessions.
Ultimately, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz will determine the future course of tensions and conflict between Iran and the US. Washington is likely to continue pursuing the parallel tracks of military action and negotiations initially. If that strategy fails to deliver the desired results, it may then turn to a third Israeli war against Iran alongside expanded US military operations targeting southern Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.