Trump’s intervention signals ...
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The third scenario would involve a large-scale attack on the outskirts of Beirut, followed by a direct response from Iran and Hezbollah and an expansion of the conflict to the Bab el-Mandeb front. Such a development would bring US-Iran negotiations to a complete halt and lead Iran to launch extensive strikes against US interests both within and beyond the region.
If this scenario materializes, Trump would likely leave the region without an agreement, while Israel would face an extremely difficult situation.
Should the third scenario unfold, the US, after entering an intense conflict lasting several days, would eventually seek to end the war following new and severe asymmetric Iranian responses and mounting pressure on both global and domestic energy markets. In order to avoid a broader confrontation with global geopolitical challenges, Washington would likely conclude the conflict by promoting a narrative of victory while providing certain international guarantees for Israel’s protection.
Given the highly fluid nature of the situation and the tactical disagreements between the United States and Israel regarding how to deal with Iran’s power and regional influence, any of these scenarios—or an intermediate outcome between them—remains possible.