Escalation to favor...
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The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stalled significant capital and increased the cost of commercial and energy transportation, creating a ripple effect in the global economy, particularly with rising oil prices. If this situation persists for a week or longer, the US and the West will face instability, and the situation within Israel will become even more complex.
Defensively, Israel is also under pressure from the barrage of Iranian missiles. Israel’s layered defense system, including systems like David’s Sling, Arrow, and THAAD, utilizes launchers to fire missiles. These launchers require several hours to reload after each launch, forcing Israelis to either abandon intercepting some missiles or risk being overwhelmed and rapidly depleting their defensive capabilities.
During the 12-day conflict in June against Iran, Israel requested assistance from the US on the eighth day and demanded a ceasefire on the twelfth because it only had enough missile defense capabilities for three more days. The situation is similar now, and Israel will likely need to end the offensive soon, but this time, Iran will dictate the terms of the ceasefire.
Accepting a ceasefire at this stage would be a mistake for Iran, as the adversaries have already achieved some of their goals, but Iran has only just begun. With the events of the past few days, there is no longer any disagreement in Iran about the need to exact revenge and punish the enemy.
If the conflict continues through the weekend, Israel and the United States will face immense pressure and must seriously consider finding a solution. If the war lasts two weeks or longer, the situation will worsen for them.
The continuation of the war and missile strikes from Iran will shift the conditions in Iran’s favor. Iran is 75 times larger than Israel and they are unable to target all points in Iran and the vast areas where Iran’s missile power resides. Iran will prevail with patience and the continuation of a fighting spirit.