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Escalation to favor Iran
Military affairs analyst
Israel and the United States miscalculated when they opted to assassinate Iran’s Leader, believing that eliminating the “top of the pyramid” in the Islamic Republic would swiftly achieve their objectives. However, this assumption proved flawed, as the Islamic Republic is not reliant on a single individual, and such assassinations will not achieve their goals. Some internal actors had, however, led them to conclude that the Leader was the sole opponent to their excessive demands, fostering the notion that his assassination would trigger widespread public unrest, paving the way for regime change in Iran.
However, the US and Israel simply lack the capacity to win a war against Iran. A military victory is achieved when the aggressor deploys boots on the ground in the target country and gain control of its territory. As long as they do not deploy troops on Iranian soil, no matter how much damage they inflict, the Islamic Republic will endure, and a decisive victory for them remains unattainable.
The initial strategy was to leverage disgruntled elements within Iran, bolstered by support from certain political figures who had previously aligned with their positions, to facilitate the deployment of ground forces. Identifying these potential forces has involved absorbing and utilizing former PKK members, who were financially supported by Israel after the group’s dissolution. These individuals played a significant role in recent domestic violence and armed clashes. The plan, it seems, was to deploy these forces, alongside Mojahedin-e Khalq, shortly after the military assault to open a path for a US ground invasion.
Now that their initial objectives have not been met, the adversaries have shifted their focus, realizing that the leadership in Iran extends beyond a single figure. They are now trying to target other senior officials.
However, Israel cannot withstand prolonged military pressure and Iranian attacks. Each missile or drone strike from Iran toward Israel causes Israeli shelters to fill up with people, mitigating casualties but placing the Israeli population under immense psychological strain and disrupting daily life.
The conflict began over the weekend, but with markets in Israel and globally disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed by Iran, thousands of civilian flights in the region have been cancelled, the costs of the military assault on Iran are becoming apparent.
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