Europe, regional states ...
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Turkish media report that Turkey’s foreign minister is travelling to Iran to discuss a range of issues, including the nuclear file. How do you interpret this visit? Could Turkey be trying to mediate between Iran and the West, or is it mainly pursuing its own regional interests?
Turkey is a NATO member, a member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, a close US ally, and at the same time an important neighbor of Iran with strong bilateral ties, not to mention its good personal relations with President Trump. Naturally, Turkey wants to play a role in this long-running international saga over Iran’s nuclear program.
Its interests demand that a second Iran-Israel war be avoided. Turkey would be among the countries most affected by such a conflict. It has a fragile economy, and any major energy disruption would hit it hard. So, Turkey’s interests lie firmly in resolving this crisis and ensuring political stability in West Asia.
Beyond that, any country that contributes to resolving the issue stands to gain political weight. Turkey is no exception.
Under current conditions, how do you assess the role of European and regional states in shaping the trajectory of potential Iran-US negotiations? Are mediators capable of bringing the two sides closer?
All regional states have their own interests at stake. These include achieving greater stability in West Asia, which sustains a multi-trillion-dollar regional economic ecosystem.
The opposite scenario, namely instability, would be disastrous leading probably to an energy crisis, security breakdowns, refugee flows. So, all these states want Iran’s nuclear ambiguity to end and a deal to be reached, because no deal means the looming risk of war. Therefore, everyone is trying, in pursuit of their own interests first, and as international actors seeking political relevance second, to mediate.
But in my view, Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have a far better chance of mediating at this stage, particularly under President Trump, who harbors deep mistrust toward Europeans. Under these circumstances, regional Arab states are far more likely to succeed as mediators.