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A recent proposal by former US energy secretary Ernest Moniz outlines an innovative roadmap: a “regional nuclear condominium,” distributing different stages of the nuclear fuel cycle among Persian Gulf countries under international oversight. Enrichment facilities, for example, could be located on an island in the Persian Gulf administered by the United Nations or a multinational body. While Tehran would likely object to certain elements of this plan, the broader concept of regional cooperation in peaceful nuclear technology merits serious consideration.
From Iran’s perspective, any such proposal would require significant modification to safeguard sovereign rights and ensure equitable benefits. Still, exploring these ideas through technical and diplomatic discussions could yield practical results.
For this to happen, Washington must move beyond the illusion of a “grand bargain” that resolves every issue at once. The experience of the JCPOA and US withdrawal from it have shown that ambitious, all-encompassing deals are fragile. A step-by-step approach—focused first on limited, verifiable arrangements providing tangible security and economic benefits to both sides—is more sustainable.
Ultimately, the future of Iran-US diplomacy depends less on declarations of willingness than on the realism of expectations. Iran will not negotiate under duress, and the United States cannot force it to do so. Yet both have reasons to avoid further confrontation: Iran seeks economic relief and recognition of its rights; the US wants to avoid another Middle Eastern conflict. In this overlap of interests lies the possibility of a modest but meaningful diplomatic opening.
Incremental steps such as technical cooperation and revived channels may not produce a grand agreement, but they could gradually restore trust and open the door to practical diplomatic gains.