Iran should offer ...
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Apart from China, what other potential markets could Iran realistically target under the current sanctions?
Some African and Latin American countries could be feasible options. In Africa, nations with some degree of political alignment with Iran—such as Nigeria, Niger, and South Africa—could be viable markets. In Latin America, countries like Cuba and Venezuela might also be on the list, especially if Venezuela continues to need condensate imports. Of course, all this still needs thorough market studies and logistical planning.
Under former president Ebrahim Raisi, there were reports that the Oil Ministry planned to rehabilitate refineries in African countries in exchange for guaranteed crude sales from Iran—a model that was already tested in Venezuela. Are similar projects being pursued under the current administration, or have they been shelved?
That approach is actually outlined in the Seventh Development Plan, which calls for Iran to build capacity for what’s termed “overseas refining.” Venezuela is the main example of this model. However, based on the first-year performance review of the plan, there’s been little to no follow-up on such projects beyond Venezuela.
The reasons for that lack of progress aren’t entirely clear, but the performance review itself mentions nothing about developing overseas refineries elsewhere. Still, this is one of the most effective ways for Iran to lock in long-term buyers—by either purchasing shares in existing refineries or signing processing contracts that guarantee multi-year crude offtake. It’s definitely a strategy that deserves renewed attention.