Ignoring Iran’s role ...
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From the provisions outlined in the agreement, the so-called “Trump Corridor” appears to mirror the “Zangezur” project—a transit and energy route that could redraw the map of the region’s geopolitics. The viability of such a project will hinge heavily on regional political and security stability, as well as on the extent of overlapping interests among the main players, especially Iran.
If the Azerbaijan–Armenia peace agreement evolves into a stable, enforceable framework and the project’s design allows Iran to benefit economically and in terms of connectivity, its chances of being implemented would rise significantly. But if mistrust and insecurity persist, and Iran’s role is sidelined or diminished, the plan could face serious roadblocks and may even serve as a stage for heightened geopolitical rivalry.
Speculation has also surfaced about the corridor being used to supply part of Europe’s gas needs. Europe—seeking in recent years to reduce its reliance on Russian gas—would welcome any alternative energy route, including the Zangezur Corridor. From a geo-energy perspective, such a plan poses a direct threat to Russia’s position in the European energy market and could cut into Moscow’s revenues and economic leverage. However, the history of transatlantic economic relations has shown that US dominance over an energy project does not necessarily guarantee European interests; Washington could well provide Europe’s energy security at higher costs and within a framework of deeper political dependency.
For Iran, this corridor presents a highly complex equation. On one hand, it could limit some of its transit routes and strategic access to the Caucasus and Europe. On the other, it might become a complementary economic and transit channel for Iranian projects. This is likely why Tehran’s cautious approach has been to postpone any final decision on the corridor’s fate until its operational conditions become clearer, focusing for now on expanding bilateral economic and transit projects with both Azerbaijan and Armenia.