Sidelining ethnic minorities ...
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As a former terrorist leader, Sharaa has systematically sidelined rival groups, consolidating his power. Today, most factions that once opposed him have been stripped from the power structure. He believes the best way to stabilize Syria is by leaning on foreign forces. He is seeking ties with Israel and European nations under Turkey’s mediation. Moreover, he is pushing to align Syria closer to Persian Gulf Cooperation Council states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Sharaa is trying to entrench his rule through supranational powers. As long as that remains his paradigm, internal order will be neglected. Without broad public support—derived from genuine political inclusion, a constitutional consensus, and representation—his grip on Syria will only weaken as his incompetence compounds.
Inevitably, Sharaa’s closeness to foreign powers such as Israel, which historically have acted against Syria’s national interest, will stir more domestic discontent and cast him as a traitor. That will further destabilize his standing in Syria.
Sharaa may gain some traction internationally—for networking, lifting sanctions, or shaping public perception—but ironically this foreign-facing strategy will intensify Syria’s internal unrest, especially while various ethnic and doctrinal groups remain caught in uncertainty, fear, and hostility toward Damascus.
Lastly, Iran’s position vis-à-vis the Sharaa regime should not be overlooked. Given Sharaa’s ideological leanings—shaped during his time leading terrorist groups—no optimistic relations with Iran should be expected.
He appears intent on tying many of his own shortcomings and failures to an external actor to deflect blame, and sees Iran as the prime scapegoat. Given that he lacks the political capital or capability to amplify the Syria-Israel conflict, and is in no position to frame another foreign adversary within the Western or European context, the Islamic Republic would become the lowest-hanging fruit. It would therefore not be surprising if, in the coming months, Mr. Sharaa increasingly shifts the blame for Syria’s domestic crises onto Iran, ramps up hostile rhetoric, and even forges alliances that align with efforts to contain Tehran.