Turkey, fall of Assad: Today, tomorrow
By Sadeq Maleki
Regional affairs expert
Regardless of the ongoing crisis in Syria and the nature of the Syrian regime’s structure, the demographic fabric of this country had made the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government an inevitable matter, one that was bound to happen sooner or later.
With Hezbollah, the most crucial factor in the stability of the Damascus government, stepping back, Bashar al-Assad lost his main support. Within less than a month, Turkey found itself an opportunity to step in as the key state that facilitated the logistics of the fall of Bashar al-Assad. This was done through both overt and covert support for Mohammed al-Julani, effectively dismantling the Ba’athist government.
Today, besides Julani, Erdogan is also pleased with the fall of Assad, and the Turkish government considers itself victorious against Iran. While this perspective largely aligns with the realities on the ground, one must wait and see what tomorrow brings and not be overly satisfied with today’s outcomes.
If the fall of Assad does not lead to the unity and cooperation of various ethnic and religious groups in Syria, it could, in the long term, inflict the greatest damage on Turkey, given that it shares the longest border with Syria.
Turkey has faced the most serious Kurdish crisis in the region over the past four decades. At times, the conflict between the government and the Kurds has resembled more of a civil war than a conflict with a single group. The Kurdish crisis, which has been the most significant security issue for Turkey, both in the time of Ataturk and now under Erdogan, remains the country’s primary security concern.
Turkey, as a supporter of Julani, will certainly demand from the post-Assad Damascus to confront the Kurds and put an end to their autonomy. This could be a catalyst for a widespread and extensive conflict, not only in Syria but also with potential spillover into Iraq and beyond. The Kurds in Syria are a trump card for the United States. They are one of the key players in the Middle East game. Washington, by playing the Kurdish card, can make the return of Assad’s days into a wish for Erdogan. We must wait and see.