Drawbacks of playing role in Syria for Turkey, Qatar
Without a doubt, the current instantaneous winners of the developments in Syria are Turkey and Qatar. However, the US should be considered the long-term winner as it has achieved the greatest gains with the least cost and can still function as a playmaker and regulator of relations among all powers, whether allies or rivals. Accordingly, the role played by Turkey and Qatar will also, to some extent, be assessed under the general criterion that waits to see how alliances and coalitions at the level of the international system would shape new security arrangements in West Asia.
By Jafar Haghpanah
Scholar
For Turkey, which is currently a regional power and indeed playing the role of an emerging power, future developments in Syria will be a mix of threats and opportunities. Although, for now, it has the upper hand compared to its rivals including Iran, Egypt, and other powers, the important issue is to consolidate these gains and have them recognized. This has been a problem that Iran has also faced over the past years. In other words, despite having the upper hand, Iran has struggled with consolidating these gains and having them recognized in the eyes of other players.
This would also be largely true for Qatar. However, Turkey will face greater challenges compared to Qatar. This is because, from a security perspective, the internal issues of Syria are intricately linked with Turkey’s internal and territorial security. Issues such as the presence of Kurds, the activities of terrorist and extremist groups, the fragile state of the Syrian government, and Syrian refugees complicate the situation, causing Turkey to face serious challenges.
It should be noted that Turkey cannot bear the exorbitant economic costs of a long-term presence in Syria. Syria is not a country with abundant natural resources and is not as tempting as Iraq. Instead, it would require investment. In this regard, it is left to be seen to what extent Turkey can negotiate and share these costs with other players, including Qatar, so that they can collectively advance this project. Otherwise, in the long term, the serious problems of a war-torn and devastated Syria could unravel all of Turkey’s machinations. Therefore, in the long run, the current situation, which is somewhat of a honeymoon for Turkey and Qatar, will not continue.