Bibi’s cabinet at end of rope
By Mehdi Shakibaei
Israel’s affairs expert
One should hesitate before using the term cease-fire for the pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas. Usually, cease-fire is used to describe a cessation of war between two countries or armies in the traditional sense. Therefore, using the term may mislead some to believe that Israel and Palestine, with their traditional armies, are two parties to a conflict, which is simply not true as their power is incommensurable. So, I prefer to coin and use the term “an agreement to stop Israeli crimes”.
The attack on October 7 by Hamas came as a massive shock to the Israeli regime and plunged it into analysis paralysis. As Israel was not in a stable position, it rushed to declare certain goals and milestones that has yet to achieve. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, shared three goals: conquering Gaza, destroying Hamas, and freeing captives.
To attain these goals, it first bombarded Gaza heavily and then launched a ground assault. For 47 days, its Western allies turned a blind eye or actively backed the crimes of Israel. Netanyahu further declared that after conquering Gaza, it would relinquish the control of the enclave to neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority but rather to Egypt, Jordan, the Islamic Cooperation Council, or the United Nations.
When the ground invasion was met with difficulties and resistance from Hamas and other groups, Tel Aviv cunningly changed its declared goals by focusing on freeing captives rather than crushing Hamas. Nevertheless, IDF forces failed to find even one captive after days of committing various crimes in Gaza since the ground assault started. Not only that, but it suffered casualties, too. Israel’s Merkava tanks and some of its elite forces were hunted by Hamas fighters in Gaza.
These facts, along with domestic pressure coming from the families of the captives and international pressure from public opinion in support of Gazans, pushed Israel’s hand to yield to Hamas’s demands. The agreement between Israel and Hamas basically reflects the same demands that Hamas made two weeks prior, which were rejected by Israel at the time. This was, in fact, another defeat that Israel suffered after Operation Al-Aqsa Storm.
Now, the question in everyone’s mind concerns whether the cease-fire will hold or be broken by Israel to start the war anew?
As long as there’s occupation in Palestine, the conditions for Israel and Palestinians will be unstable. Since 2008, the Israelis have waged several major wars against Palestinians, the root of which is in the occupation.
But this time, I believe that the cease-fire will hold. This, of course, does not mean that Israel has let Palestinians be, at least not until this cabinet is in office. From the viewpoint of the current hawkish Israeli cabinet, this cease-fire agreement is a defeat. They think the further they retreat on the battlefield, the faster their collapse will occur. Thus, it would come as no surprise if, despite pressure from the US, the IDF violated the agreement.
In the end, however, the cabinet has no choice but to accept defeat and face reality. The reality is that Netanyahu’s cabinet will fall apart. The US administration and Joe Biden are standing ready to accelerate Netanyahu’s downfall when the opportunity arises. Now, the opportunity seems to have presented itself to see the ouster of Bibi’s cabinet as the immediate result of the agreement. The US seeks to see Netanyahu’s opposition assume power to create a so-called lasting state of affairs in Israel and Palestine. Whether they will reach their goal or not remains to be seen, but what is certain is that Netanyahu and his warmongering cabinet are at the end of their rope.