Rising food prices may be only beginning
How compound risks in global food system can push societies past critical thresholds
By Mohammad Emami
Food security analyst
The World Bank’s October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts a 7% rise in global food commodity prices in 2027. Disruptions to Black Sea grain trade, higher energy costs and an exceptionally strong El Niño could push prices as much as 12% above that baseline. But the greater concern lies beyond the forecast: when food shocks interact with economic pressures and social vulnerabilities, they can trigger crises that persist long after the initial disruptions have subsided.
The global food system faces several pressures at once. Higher energy costs drive up production and transportation expenses, fertilizer shortages threaten future harvests, and climate hazards put additional strain on crop yields. Though these pressures originate in different parts of the global economy, their effects can compound. A farmer facing higher fertilizer prices may use less, with the consequences emerging only in the following harvest. If drought or trade restrictions strike in the meantime, the options for making up the shortfall narrow.
Michael Werz, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, has warned that disruptions to Black Sea grain exports and fertilizer shortages stemming from the war in Iran are putting pressure on both current food supplies and future production capacity. Rob Vos, a researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute, has also examined how disruptions to energy markets and fertilizer trade affect agricultural production.
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