Leader signals shift toward punishment-based deterrence
By Mohsen Farkhani
Middle East affairs analyst
The meeting between Iran’s Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei and senior military commanders, along with his directives emphasizing an immediate, effective and geographically unrestricted response to any threat from the United States and Israel, points to the consolidation of an offensive deterrence strategy based on disproportionate punishment as the Islamic Republic’s military and security doctrine. The strategy is primarily aimed at raising the cost of any enemy military action to a level that makes it unacceptable from a cost-benefit perspective.
The meeting and the issuance of firm and authoritative directives by the Leader took place as speculation mounted over the possibility of new US and Israeli attacks following the US midterm elections, while diplomatic channels remained active in Doha under Qatar’s mediation. Coming at a time when the enemy is weighing the costs and benefits of its military and non-military options against Iran, the directives have targeted the very framework through which the enemy calculates and makes its final decision on military confrontation with Iran.
The offensive nature of the language used in the Leader’s directives reflects Iran’s determination to draw the United States and Israel into an escalating cycle of challenges. This would confront the US in particular, as the main backer of the Israeli regime, with serious difficulties in the energy sector, supply chains and the security of American bases, against the backdrop of ongoing domestic economic and social pressures.
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