Economic resilience requires ...
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Direct financial assistance and coupon-based support could help protect vulnerable groups, he said. Such measures would direct public resources toward households most in need while helping maintain access to essential goods during periods of external pressure.
Katani acknowledged that sustaining domestic production under these conditions would be difficult. When businesses face higher costs, uncertainty and obstacles to obtaining inputs, the government has limited room to resolve every problem quickly. Production could recover more effectively if the political outlook improved and macroeconomic stability strengthened.
Expanding regional trade
Katani said Iran could make greater use of its extensive land borders to maintain access to goods and recover part of the trade capacity disrupted through maritime routes. Neighboring countries could provide additional channels for commerce, helping diversify routes used to bring in essential supplies.
“Iran can use the extensive capacity of its land borders and recover part of the maritime trade it has lost,” he said. Informal trade could also play a significant role in supplying goods needed in the country, particularly when formal channels face obstacles.
Practical steps could make cross-border commerce more efficient. Faster customs clearance and agreements with neighboring states to facilitate the movement of people and goods would help reduce delays and ease trade. Greater use of regional routes could also spread risks across different channels rather than leaving businesses dependent on a narrow set of options.
Role of diplomacy
Despite the value of domestic measures and regional cooperation, Katani argued that the main difficulties facing Iran’s economy in recent years have been political. Substantial economic improvement would be difficult without a meaningful change in the political outlook, he said.
“The problem with Iran’s economy in recent years has, first and foremost, been political,” he said. “If there is no significant diplomatic breakthrough, economic conditions will not see a substantial improvement either.”
Katani said the immediate objective should be to limit the impact of external constraints while keeping essential economic activity running. Facilitating trade with neighboring countries, managing energy consumption and prioritizing imports could all contribute to greater stability. These steps, however, should be seen as ways to manage difficult conditions, nor substitutes for progress in foreign policy.
Katani said Iran’s ability to withstand external economic pressure would depend partly on how effectively the government used its available resources and trade links. But without progress in foreign policy, the scope for a sustained economic recovery would remain limited.