Economic resilience requires both domestic measures, diplomatic progress
Iran can strengthen its economic resilience through targeted domestic measures, closer trade ties with neighboring countries and progress in foreign policy, economic expert Alireza Katani said. Practical steps can help manage external pressures, he added, but cannot fully replace diplomatic progress.
In an interview with Iran Daily, Katani said the government could prioritize essential imports if restrictions on foreign trade and access to foreign currency intensified. One short-term option would be to limit imports of non-essential goods so that available resources could be directed toward basic commodities and urgent needs.
“By rationing and restricting imports of luxury and non-essential goods, the government can secure essential needs and basic commodities for the public, provided other conditions remain unchanged,” Katani said. He added that limited foreign-exchange interventions, including Dutch auctions, could help manage expectations in the currency market. Katani noted that the Central Bank of Iran was already using both approaches. However, he cautioned that not every movement in the exchange rate could be addressed through monetary measures. Some fluctuations, he said, were closely tied to political developments and conditions beyond the central bank’s direct control.
Protecting livelihoods
The analyst said external restrictions could eventually affect domestic prices, particularly if they continued over a longer period. Higher import costs and difficulties accessing goods would make it unrealistic to assume that administrative price controls could prevent all price increases indefinitely. “We cannot ignore existing risks to prices and assume that administrative price controls will work in the long term,” he said. Rather than relying on fixed prices alone, Katani argued, the government should reduce the impact of difficult conditions on lower-income households and ensure families can meet basic needs.