ECONOMIC LENS
Hidden winners of US-Israeli war
By Golzar Aghaei
Economic policy specialist
The Iran-US-Israel war that began on 28 February 2026 was a “geo-economics moment” that reshaped the political economy architecture of the region and the world. In its World Economic Outlook (April 2026), the International Monetary Fund lowered global growth from 3.3% to 3.1% and outlined three scenarios: a baseline scenario (war ending in the coming weeks), an adverse scenario (2.5% growth), and a severe scenario (1.3% growth). In its Global Economic Prospects (June 2026), the World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% and warned that if the energy shock spills over into financial markets, growth could fall to 1.3%. These reports set the official framework for analyzing the war’s consequences.
Western winners: Energy, banking
Western energy companies were the biggest winners of this war. BP’s profits more than doubled in the first quarter of 2026, reaching $3.2 billion. Shell posted $6.92 billion in profits, and TotalEnergies saw a one-third increase to $5.4 billion. Western banks also profited from market volatility: JPMorgan recorded a record $11.6 billion in trading revenue, and the combined profits of the six largest US banks reached $47.7 billion.
Winners beyond the West
According to Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2025-26 (June 2026), Pakistan achieved 3.7% growth and reduced its budget deficit to 0.7% of GDP, though it missed its 4.2% target. According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects (June 2026), the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan saw the sharpest downward revision, with growth forecasts cut from 4 to 1.65%. Transit traffic at Karachi Port reached 8,860 containers in the first 24 days of March 2026, exceeding the port’s total transshipment volume for all of 2025. In August 2026, Pakistan and Iran reaffirmed their commitment to expanding bilateral trade, setting a shared target of $10 billion in annual trade.
According to the IMF (July 2026), the United Arab Emirates kept its economy “resilient” and was expected to recover in the second half of 2026. The non-oil sector accounts for about 75% of GDP, and sovereign wealth funds hold around $2.49 trillion in assets.
According to the IMF’s Article IV mission statement (June 2026), Saudi Arabia showed “resilience,” and Aramco posted net profits of 122.6 billion riyals ($32.7 billion) — a 44% increase. The East-West pipeline allowed oil exports to continue from the Red Sea.
According to the Bank for International Settlements (May 2026), Turkey faced “a highly uncertain environment,” and its budget deficit could widen to 4% of GDP. Nevertheless, exports remained strong and the foreign trade balance improved.
According to the World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook (April 2026), Qatar faced a 5.7% economic contraction — caused by the halt in LNG production and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Damage to Ras-Laffan facilities reduced export capacity by about 17%.
According to the IMF, China experienced 4.4% growth and Russia 1.1%. Analysts consider the BRICS “relative winners” of this war — China politically and Russia economically. Russia benefited from the tripling of Urals oil prices; Moscow’s daily revenue reached about $760 million.
Iraq benefited from rising oil prices but felt the risk of the conflict spreading. Turkmenistan gained from increased gas demand from China. Azerbaijan benefited from increased gas exports to Europe. Afghanistan, however, faced a food crisis and a tripling of transport costs.
Domestic beneficiaries
In Pakistan, the military was the largest domestic beneficiary; the defense budget exceeded 3 trillion rupees. In the UAE, port companies such as DP World benefited from increased traffic. In Saudi Arabia, Aramco and affiliated companies gained the most. In China, state oil companies benefited from cheap Iranian oil. In Russia, oil oligarchs gained from the tripling of Urals prices.
The Iran-US-Israel war was a “multi-winner game.” Non-belligerent countries with favorable geography, surplus energy capacity, and diplomatic flexibility gained the most. The main lesson for the region is clear: in the new geo-economics order, survival depends not on formal alliances but on diplomatic flexibility, diversified partners, and maintaining communication channels.
This paper is the first in a series on the political economy of the US-Israeli war. In the following issues, we will examine in detail the role of each beneficiary country. Pakistan will be the first country examined in detail (Report 2).