Trump more focused ...
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Limited and localized military actions may continue alongside these measures. One possible objective would be to reopen parts of the Strait of Hormuz and allow more oil to leave the region, helping Washington manage the oil market and keep prices around their current levels. I believe this is the main direction of Trump’s policy, at least until the midterm elections.
What message does the recent meeting of the US CENTCOM commander with Israeli and Arab military commanders in Germany send about the region’s future security arrangements?
I believe this meeting is part of a broader effort to establish new security arrangements in the region. The developments of the past several months have shown that the existing regional security arrangements need to be readjusted, and all sides are working on this in different ways. The United States appears to be considering what kind of security structure should emerge after the conflict. This includes the future of US military bases in the region, the relationship between the United States, Israel and Arab countries, and the possible roles of China and Russia. There are also questions about Iran’s future military capabilities, including its missile and drone programs and regional groups closed to Tehran. These are among the issues that are now being considered as the parties try to shape the region’s future security environment.
How much influence can the Persian Gulf Arab countries have on Washington’s decisions about the continuation or suspension of the conflict?
The Arab countries can certainly have a major influence. A significant part of the conflict has taken place in their territory, and they have demonstrated that they have room for maneuver in their relations with major international powers. For example, during the Biden administration, some regional countries showed that they could distance themselves from Washington and develop closer relations with Russia and China. Saudi Arabia also refused a US request to increase oil production and instead cooperated with Russia within OPEC Plus on production cuts. The formation of Mecca Defense Pact is an important initiative in parallel with the US wish to see regional states move towards burden sharing. These examples show that the Persian Gulf countries have considerable room to maneuver and can influence the decisions of major international powers through their policies. Their role will also be important in determining the future of US military bases in the region and the extent to which regional countries can assume a greater responsibility for regional security through cooperation among themselves. Such arrangements could become an important part of the future regional security structure.
With military developments, consultations with Arab countries and renewed discussion of negotiations taking place simultaneously, what role can diplomacy play in the next phase of the Iran-US crisis?
This crisis ultimately has to be resolved through diplomacy. Wars generally could only have two possible outcomes: the complete defeat of one side and occupation of its territory, or a diplomatic settlement. Since the complete defeat of one side and occupation of territory are out of question in this case, there is essentially no alternative to diplomacy. Diplomacy will therefore have a decisive role in bringing the conflict to an end. It can also reduce the costs for all sides involved. Ultimately, this crisis will have to be settled through diplomatic means.