Trump more focused on economic pressure than full-scale war
By Delaram Ahmadi
Staff writer
Former Iranian diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi told Iran Daily that US President Donald Trump’s recent remarks about potentially resuming major attacks on Iran should be treated cautiously, given his history of making contradictory statements. Ahmadi said Trump’s statements alone cannot provide a reliable indication of the US course of action or a change in policy unless they are repeated by other senior officials, reiterated by Trump himself, and supported by moves or developments on the ground. He argued that Washington’s current approach appears to be centered on more economic pressure and the continued naval blockade than on returning to a full-scale war. At the same time, Ahmadi said limited and localized military actions could continue, particularly in connection with efforts to reopen parts of the Strait of Hormuz and increase oil flows to global markets. He also stressed that regional countries will have an important role in shaping future security arrangements and that diplomacy will ultimately be essential to ending the conflict.
IRAN DAILY: How should President Trump’s latest remarks about potentially resuming major attacks on Iran be interpreted? Do they signal a change in US policy?
AHMADI: Trump’s statements should be treated with caution. He frequently makes contradictory statements and often speaks based on what seems important to him at a particular moment. Therefore, a single statement should not be taken as evidence of a major policy decision. We can take such remarks more seriously if they are repeated by other senior administration officials, if Trump himself repeats them several times in a period of time and on different occasions, and if there are supporting signs and actual moves and developments on the ground. In this particular case, I believe the same rule applies. His recent statements have been contradictory, and his broader conduct suggests that he does not have a strong intention or desire to return to a full-scale war against Iran. The reason is relatively clear. The United States and Israel already launched a major war, but it could not attain their goals and produce the expected outcome. The initial elements of surprise, the assassination of senior officials and the shock caused by the attack were expected to contribute to the collapse of Iran’s political system. That did not happen. Iran is also a very large country, and it has significant capabilities to use both in terms of ground and missile and drone forces. My assessment is therefore that Trump has essentially moved away from the idea of a full-scale war and is instead focusing on continued naval blockade and increased economic pressure, hoping to achieve results within several months.
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