China edges into low‑risk mediation between Iran, US
China’s president Xi Jinping recently announced that Beijing is ready to work with BRICS members to help restore peace and stability in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Some observers interpret these remarks as a sign that China is prepared to step into a mediating role between Iran and the United States — a role earlier attempted, with limited or negligible results, by Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan. Many analysts argued that these countries lacked the necessary capacity and viewed China as the most viable option. Ahmad Rashidinejad, a geopolitical researcher, told Iran Daily that China is currently pursuing a strategy of “gradual, low‑risk mediation”, aiming to avoid exposing itself to heavy political risks.
IRAN DAILY: Can China’s recent remarks be seen as a sign of readiness to mediate between Iran and the United States?
RASHIDINEJAD: These remarks are best understood within the framework of China’s “gradual, low‑risk mediation diplomacy”. Beijing likely prefers, at least in the initial phase, to work through regional intermediaries — such as Pakistan and possibly Turkey and Egypt — rather than jump into a formal, high‑risk direct mediation. The reason for this caution is clear: China has direct economic interests with all parties involved and is deeply dependent on the security of regional energy flows. Based on this, Beijing’s primary objective is to consolidate its position as a “stability‑builder”, without taking on the heavy costs and commitments of direct mediation.
If China’s recent statements signal greater readiness to engage more actively in the crisis, what factors have influenced this shift?
Several factors have pushed China toward a more active regional approach. At the forefront is its profound economic and energy dependence: China is the largest trading partner of Iran and nearly all Persian Gulf states, and it sources 40–50 percent of its imported oil from the region. Continued conflict directly threatens shipping security and energy flows. Alongside this dependency, the erosion of the United States’ regional standing has been significant. Washington’s entanglement in costly Middle Eastern crises has chipped away at its credibility as the region’s security guarantor, creating space for China to step in as a more reliable alternative.
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