Increased rainfall has revived hopes for revival of Lake Urmia
Yet groundwater reserves being depleted
Notable precipitations during the previous Persian calendar year (started March 21, 2026) have once again restored water to segments of the Lake Urmia bed and have resuscitated hopes for the rehabilitation of this watery expanse. Nevertheless, the recession of a considerable portion of these waters with the commencement of the warm season demonstrated that episodic rainfall, in isolation, cannot serve as the guarantor of the lake’s deliverance. Lake Urmia, which over the course of more than one decade has forfeited a substantial fraction of its water, has today been transformed more into a seasonal wetland than a perennial lake; a condition whose roots must be sought beyond deficient precipitation and within the water consumption pattern and agricultural expansion in the lake’s catchment basin. Simultaneously, the persistence of excessive extraction from subterranean water resources, the proliferation of agricultural lands, and the cultivation of water-intensive crops in the region, in conjunction with the intensification of the water crisis throughout the nation, have exacerbated anxieties regarding the lake’s future and the environmental ramifications of its desiccation. Nonetheless, according to experts, the recent rainfall has conveyed a significant message: Lake Urmia still possesses the capacity for rehabilitation, provided that, simultaneously with the exploitation of climatic opportunities, the reformation of consumption patterns and the governance of water resources are also placed upon the agenda. In the ensuing interview with Kamran Zeinalzadeh, the director of the Lake Urmia Research Institute, we have examined the most recent hydrological status of the lake, the effectiveness of the recent precipitations, the prospective outlook for forthcoming rainfall, the perpetuation of the subterranean water crisis, the role of agriculture and extraction from rivers, and, most critically, the real prerequisites for the restoration of Lake Urmia.
By Sadeq Dehqan
Staff writer
IRAN DAILY: At the inception of the current calendar year, when promising rainfall had occurred in the region, we conducted an interview with you concerning the condition of Lake Urmia. At that time, an extensive portion of the lakebed had been submerged; however, you issued a caution that, given the shallowness of the water and the start of the warm season, we would witness a decrease in the lake’s water level. Now, after the passage of several months, how do you evaluate the state of the lake? And what differences does the current situation exhibit in comparison to the analogous period of the preceding year?
ZEINALZADEH: The current hydrological year, which commenced in Mehr 1404 (October 2025) and will conclude in Shahrivar 1405 (September 2026), has, from a climatological perspective, presented a favorable opportunity for Lake Urmia. During this hydrological year, the precipitation level increased by approximately 61% relative to the corresponding period of the previous hydrological year and by about 25% in comparison to the long-term analogous period; and this very factor caused a considerable volume of water to accumulate in the lake relative to prior years.
Of course, it must be noted that the bed of Lake Urmia, owing to the sedimentary deposits resulting from the evaporation of the lake’s water over the past three decades, has become nearly planar. Consequently, any water that enters the lake disperses rapidly across an extensive surface and does not attain significant depth. This phenomenon accelerates the evaporation rate of the lake’s water. As we had predicted, with the onset of the warm season, a substantial portion of this accumulated water has evaporated; nevertheless, the lake’s condition is superior to that of the previous year, which was among the worst years.
Could you provide a specific numerical figure concerning the current volume of the lake’s water or the quantity of water that remains in comparison to the previous year?
The reality is that the numerical data pertaining to water volume under current circumstances, due to the imprecision of the existing bathymetric map of the lakebed, do not constitute accurate indices for evaluating the lake’s status. The most recent precise information we possess regarding the topographical undulations of the lakebed dates to 1398 (2019–2020). Since that time, the lakebed has been altered under the influence of sedimentation processes, and for this reason, one cannot estimate with certitude regarding the extant volume of water in the lake.
However, the present situation is superior to that of the previous year. At this moment, the lake’s water level has risen by approximately 1.1 meters relative to the same period in the preceding year. The lake’s surface area has also expanded by roughly 1,600 square kilometers compared to this time last year. I estimate that, under current conditions, the lake contains approximately 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters of water.
It must be considered that, at this time last year, virtually no water remained within the lake — perhaps less than 100 million cubic meters. On the other hand, climatological projections indicate that the forthcoming autumn will likely bring relatively abundant rainfall as well. Perhaps the precipitation will not match the exceedingly heavy rainfall of the autumn of the previous year, but greater rainfall is forecast relative to recent years. Therefore, one may remain hopeful that autumnal precipitations will also contribute to the lake.
Given the adequate rainfall of the past two years, can it be asserted that these precipitations can lay the groundwork for the lake’s rehabilitation?
The rainfall has rendered substantial assistance, but it cannot, in isolation, determine or guarantee the restoration of Lake Urmia. The principal problem of the lake is a grave and chronic malady, whose roots must be sought in the excessive consumption of water within the catchment basin. We have persistently expanded agricultural lands beyond the capacity of the basin’s renewable water resources. At present, there exist more than 600,000 hectares of irrigated lands surrounding the lake, particularly in the provinces of West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, and portions of Kurdestan.
A noteworthy point is that this crisis-stricken catchment basin is also active and holds a record in the exportation of water-intensive crops. This basin, while acutely suffering from water scarcity and having faced serious difficulties in recent years even in securing potable water for the settlements located within it, is an exporter of apples, other stone fruit crops, as well as commodities such as alfalfa, sugar beets, and other water-intensive products that are not particularly compatible with the region’s climatic conditions.
The question arises: despite the constraints on water resources and the severe reduction in rainfall over past years, how does the production of these crops continue in such abundance? The answer must be sought in the absence of proper governance, insufficient supervision, the state of abandon in the water, agriculture, and natural resources sectors, and the lack of integrated water resource management.
Alongside surface water resources, the immoderate and unauthorized extraction of subterranean waters also persists. These resources have been formed over thousands of years, but they are now being depleted at an accelerated rate.
The farmers themselves perceive this situation more acutely than anyone else; for every day, they are compelled to increase the depth of their wells in order to access water. This matter constitutes a serious warning regarding the state of subterranean water resources in the region.
Of course, it is possible that exceptional precipitations over several consecutive years might again introduce a considerable volume of water into the lake and contribute naturally to its rehabilitation process; however, subterranean water resources cannot, within such a temporal interval, compensate for the incurred water deficit.
Notwithstanding these difficulties, have the recent precipitations at least engendered the hope that Lake Urmia still possesses the capacity for rehabilitation?
That is correct. One of the most significant lessons that the recent precipitations have imparted to us is that Lake Urmia remains capable of restoration. Perhaps prior to these rainfalls, many people and officials had relinquished hope and supposed that the return of water to the lake was no longer possible. But the recent precipitations demonstrated that, if climatic conditions are favorable, nature can assist in the lake’s rehabilitation.
As a result of these rains, approximately 3 to 4 billion cubic meters of water accumulated in the lake during early spring, and this event generated considerable optimism. In addition to the water that gathered in the lake, unofficial reports of the gradual dissolution of the lakebed’s salt in certain areas and the deepening of the bed constituted another auspicious piece of news.
Of that volume of water, how much remains now?
Precise estimation is not feasible owing to the same issue I explained regarding the condition of the lakebed; however, based on superficial estimates, approximately 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters of that lake water probably remains at the present time. But the atmospheric precipitations of the past year and the persistence of water in portions of the lake convey an important message: Lake Urmia is still restorable. We have no alternative but to proceed along the path of the lake’s rehabilitation. Lake Urmia is not merely an aesthetically pleasing aquatic expanse; this lake plays a critical role in the region’s climatic conditions, and its desiccation will entail serious consequences for the environment and for human livelihoods.
Therefore, the principal problem must be sought beyond the lake itself and in the water consumption within the catchment basin?
Precisely. I always employ an example to elucidate this matter. Suppose an individual has contracted diabetes due to excessive sugar consumption and, as the disease progresses, his foot has been damaged. We cannot merely contemplate treating or amputating his foot; we must rectify the primary disease, namely diabetes, which is rooted in the individual’s consumptive regimen and lifestyle patterns.
Lake Urmia is, in a sense, the consequence of a chronic ailment, and that ailment is the excessive consumption of water and unsustainable development within the catchment basin. If we persist in agricultural expansion and the immoderate extraction of water resources, the rainfall, even if increased, will not suffice to resolve the lake’s and the basin’s water problems. This trajectory endangers even the future security, the region’s sustainability, and the resilience of forthcoming generations.
If the lake desiccates, what will be the most consequential ramification?
One of the significant repercussions of the lake’s desiccation is the heightened risk of dust and salt particle emissions and the exacerbation of climatic alterations and damages in the region. Therefore, the issue is not merely the disappearance of a lake; its desiccation could generate a cascade of environmental and social consequences.
The problem, of course, is not confined to the Urmia catchment basin. Nearly all of the country’s plains are confronting a negative water balance, and Iran is also in an extremely alarming state regarding land subsidence. The roots of this situation must be sought in unsustainable agricultural development, the disproportionate expansion of orchards, the establishment of water-intensive industries in water-scarce regions, and the neglect of territorial planning.
For the salvation of Lake Urmia and escaping from this predicament, what action should be prioritized?
If we desire the restoration of Lake Urmia and the preservation of the nation’s wetlands, we must resolve the root cause of the problem. The excessive extraction from the basin’s water resources is our foremost difficulty, and the volume of water that enters the lake through precipitation cannot compensate for these extractions.
Even today, the issue is not exclusively environmental; we are also confronting a serious crisis in the provision of potable water. The past hydrological year was among the most difficult years in the country, and many cities, metropolises, and villages encountered grave difficulties in securing drinking water. Under such circumstances, it is natural that the primary priority is the supply of potable water, and in many regions, we cannot even furnish sufficient water for agriculture.
This circumstance has exacerbated the heavy extraction of subterranean waters in the absence of supervision and governance. To extricate ourselves from this situation, we require integrated management and sound water governance. We must bring the water consumption into equilibrium and accept that, in an arid territory, we cannot continue to position traditional agriculture as the central axis of development.
This does not signify the abandonment of agriculture. We require agriculture for food security, but we must transform our production methods. Today, novel technologies and scientific methodologies exist that permit us, with reduced cultivated area as well as lower water, pesticide, and fertilizer consumption, to achieve greater production and even sustainable exports of agricultural products.
Given the current circumstances, can it be stated that Lake Urmia has transcended the crisis phase, or does it remain in a critical condition?
Responding to this question necessitates precision. We have perhaps not had the former Lake Urmia for more than 10 years, and what we observe today is more of a seasonal wetland. In recent years, during autumn and early spring, precipitation causes some water to accumulate in the lake, but by the conclusion of the hydrological year, approximately in Shahrivar (August–September), the greater part of the bed again becomes desiccated, and this cycle repeats perpetually. Therefore, one cannot assert that we have passed beyond the crisis. As long as integrated water resource management is not established, the excessive expansion of farms is not halted, and the cultivation of crops incompatible with the region’s climatic conditions is not controlled, one cannot speak of having overcome the crisis.
As you indicated, one of the critical issues is the extensive extraction of subterranean waters from the lands surrounding the lake. What direct connection do these extractions have with the condition of the lake itself?
This matter, from a scientific perspective, requires more meticulous investigation, and one must speak with scientific data regarding the degree of direct impact of subterranean water extraction upon the lake. Here, I principally wished to elucidate the dimensions of the water crisis; that is, that simultaneously with the lake’s desiccation, on a broader scale, we are also confronting the depletion of subterranean water resources. These two phenomena, in conjunction, demonstrate that we are facing a grave crisis and that we must devise remedies for it as expeditiously as possible.
Do species that previously existed in Lake Urmia, such as Artemia, still persist?
Artemia, fortunately, has the capacity to tolerate harsh conditions of water scarcity, and even under desiccated conditions, its cysts can persist; and whenever conditions become suitable — that is, when water enters the lake and salinity reaches a tolerable level — Artemia can become active anew and resume its life cycle.
At present, Artemia exists in the lake, and given its abundance, proposals have even been advanced for its harvest and appropriate utilization since this aquatic organism could be economically and livelihood-wise beneficial for farmers and residents surrounding the lake.
Under current conditions, can water from rivers and dams be redirected toward Lake Urmia through management measures?
Unfortunately, due to climatic conditions, a considerable portion of efforts is now devoted to securing potable water. On the other hand, along the course of rivers and in the plains, agricultural lands have expanded to such an extent that a large fraction of river water is consumed before it can reach the lake. For this reason, we no longer possess a river capable of conveying a substantial volume of water to the lake as it once did.
According to estimates, the basin’s rivers, under natural conditions, should deliver approximately 3.2 billion cubic meters of water annually to the lake; however, under current circumstances, the quantity of water that actually reaches the lake is far inferior to this amount.
If you were to offer a concluding warning or principal recommendation regarding the future of Lake Urmia and the nation’s water crisis, what would you state?
We must arrive as rapidly as possible at the recognition that the water issue is not merely an environmental matter but can be declared a crisis, and therefore we must take action to resolve this issue as soon as possible.
The pattern of water consumption in the country is not commensurate with the region’s capacity. We must transition toward activities that generate greater revenue with lower water consumption, including the development of services and industries appropriate to the region’s capacity, and novel agricultural technologies. If we do not institute these changes, we shall continue to progress along the same worsening trajectory, and the water crisis will assume far more serious dimensions in the future.