From barrel to qubit:
How center of global power is shifting
By Saman Sarsar
Technology and Policy Researcher
For more than a century, the geography of global power largely overlapped with the geography of energy. Oil-rich countries became arenas for competition among powerful states, while oil and gas were not only the fuel of industrial civilization but also among the most important forces shaping the global economy, politics and geopolitics. The oil barrel became a symbol of wealth, authority and bargaining power.
But a major transformation is underway. The center of power is gradually shifting from ownership of resources to the ability to turn those resources into technology.
This does not mean energy is becoming less important. Future civilization will need more energy than ever, as data centers, artificial intelligence, robotics, electric vehicles, communications networks, advanced industries and computing infrastructure all depend on it. What is changing is the relationship between energy and power. Energy remains a necessary condition for civilization, but technology is becoming the multiplier that determines how much wealth, knowledge, productivity and influence each unit of energy can generate.
The evolution can be summed up in three words: barrel, bit and qubit.
The barrel represents the industrial age, when matter and energy were the foundation of production. The bit represents the information revolution, when data and processing power became an increasingly important component of power. The qubit may represent the next frontier of computational civilization, where quantum mechanics challenges our understanding of information processing and computing capacity. In the industrial economy, competitive advantage depended largely on natural resources, physical capital and production capacity. The digital economy, however, revealed a fundamental truth: value does not necessarily scale with physical mass or energy consumption. A small semiconductor chip, a quantum computer capable of solving complex algorithms, an AI model or a database can create value with no linear relationship to its physical size.
This is where the bit stands alongside the barrel. The barrel represents an economy deriving much of its power from matter and energy; the bit represents one drawing an increasing share of its power from information and processing capability. Now the bit itself is approaching a new frontier: the qubit.
A qubit should not be viewed simply as a faster bit. That interpretation is fundamentally misleading. Classical bits exist in one of two states, 0 or 1, while qubits use superposition, entanglement and interference to create a different space for processing information. In some problems, the significance of quantum computing lies not simply in greater speed but in changing how problems are formulated and solved.
Quantum computing remains under development and is not about to replace classical computers. Nor should the technology's potential be exaggerated. But strategically, a technology's importance cannot be measured only by its current maturity. Strategic technologies can reshape the architecture of competition before reaching commercial maturity, as countries and companies must position themselves early across their value chains — from education and fundamental research to chips, algorithms, advanced materials, computing infrastructure, energy and human capital. Artificial intelligence is a clear example. It will be a massive consumer of energy, but it can also optimize power grids, industrial processes, transportation, buildings, supply chains and energy production and distribution systems. Technology is therefore not merely an energy consumer; it can increase the efficiency with which energy is converted into products and value.
The relationship is not simple substitution but synergy and feedback. Technology needs energy, while more advanced technology can make energy use more efficient. More energy can expand computing and production capacity, while better technology can increase the value extracted from the same amount of energy.
In the 20th century, access to abundant and cheap natural resources could provide a major advantage. In the 21st century, the more important question is what a country does with its resources. Two countries may have similar energy reserves, but the one with strong universities, human capital, semiconductors, AI, robotics, advanced materials, storage technology and computing infrastructure can generate far greater economic and strategic value from the same unit of energy.
This is the distinction between a source of power and a multiplier of power. Energy is a source; technology is a multiplier. For countries with vast energy reserves, the distinction is particularly important. Oil and gas remain strategic assets, but if they are merely extracted and exported, much of the value added is created beyond their borders. The question is no longer simply how much oil and gas a country possesses, but how much knowledge, technology and advanced industry it can apply to those resources.
The recent conflict involving Iran offered a clear illustration. It was not the country's oil reserves that sustained its resilience under pressure, but its reliance on domestic technology. Despite extensive damage, repairs in the country's industries were carried out rapidly, highlighting the role of technology as a power multiplier.
That is the quiet but profound shift taking place. A country with oil has a natural advantage; a country with technology can redefine its natural advantages. Future competition will not necessarily be about who has more energy, but who can convert energy more efficiently into computing, computing into knowledge, knowledge into human capital, human capital into technology, and technology into power.
The barrel was a symbol of power in the industrial age; the bit represents power in the information age; and the qubit points toward the frontier of computational civilization. The great question of the new century is no longer simply who controls more energy. It is who will command the highest conversion ratio of energy into technology, and technology into power. The answer will shape much of the global geography of power in the decades ahead.
The article first appeared in
Persian on IRNA.