Iran can withstand US pressure by diversifying economic options
By Delaram Ahmadi
Staff writer
The United States’ stated goal of exerting additional economic pressure on Iran may not produce the exact results Washington seeks, but it will still affect the country’s economy and require Iran to take appropriate measures to withstand the pressure.
Amin Mokarrami, an economic analyst, reviewed Iran’s challenges and possible solutions in the face of the expected pressure. He said sanctions become less capable of causing an economic shock when Iran can secure multiple export markets and transport routes and strengthen its domestic production base.
IRAN DAILY: How serious is the Trump administration’s new economic campaign against Iran, and do you think it can ultimately succeed in achieving its objectives?
MOKARRAMI: I would describe this as a serious escalation, not as a campaign whose outcome is already decided. Washington is trying to make the cost of doing business with Iran much higher, not only for Iranian entities but also for foreign banks and financial institutions that facilitate trade with Iran. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have used strong language, describing the policy as economic warfare and talking about economic “asphyxiation.” The aim is to cut Iran’s oil income, limit its access to foreign currency and make trade and financial transactions more difficult.
The main question is whether Washington can persuade other countries to cooperate. China, Turkey, Iraq and other regional trading partners have their own economic interests. Washington can threaten them with secondary sanctions, but every additional country it pressures also creates another diplomatic and economic problem for the United States. China is particularly important. If Chinese companies continue buying Iranian oil and maintaining trade with Iran, it becomes much harder for Washington to close every channel. Iran therefore needs to work to preserve these relationships. It should not assume that political opposition to US sanctions automatically guarantees continued trade. It has to make cooperation with Iran commercially attractive and predictable.
What role can China and Iran’s land neighbors play if US pressure on maritime trade becomes more severe?
China could be the most important external factor. Iran needs oil buyers, imports and foreign currency channels. China is important in all three areas. Beijing has repeatedly opposed unilateral US sanctions and has said it will protect the legitimate interests of Chinese companies. That gives Iran some room to maintain economic relations, although China will not accept unlimited risks.
If Washington starts imposing penalties on Chinese banks or companies because of their Iranian business, the issue could become part of the wider US-China confrontation. That would complicate matters for Washington as well as Iran. Iran’s land borders are also becoming more important. If maritime trade faces additional restrictions, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia can provide alternative channels for goods, payments and transportation. Iran should invest in border infrastructure, railways, roads and customs systems and negotiate practical trade arrangements with neighbors. Faster customs clearance and predictable regulations can help.
I would not describe land routes as a replacement for maritime trade. Their value is that they diversify Iran’s options. Iran should also strengthen economic ties with Central Asia and the Caucasus, and use its position as a transit country more effectively. The goal should be a network of routes and partners rather than dependence on one corridor. This is where regional diplomacy becomes especially important for Iran and its trading partners today.
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