Pakistan-Kuwait defense ...
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It should be noted that factors such as Pakistan’s fragile economy and its heavy dependence on Persian Gulf energy and investment have placed Islamabad in a dependent position. At the same time, multiple military commitments will stretch the country’s resources. As a result, simultaneously managing relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and the US is a fragile balancing act, and any overt tilt could carry heavy costs.
Based on the three points above, three possible scenarios can be identified:
In the first scenario, Pakistan continues to expand military cooperation with Persian Gulf countries but refrains from deploying large numbers of combat forces. Relations with Iran remain focused on managing tensions and maintaining border cooperation. The trilateral axis with Turkey and Saudi Arabia operates as a mechanism for collective deterrence, without taking action against Iran. Under this scenario, Pakistan secures its economic interests, while Iran, without entering the newly established defense agreements, independently maintains its deepening influence in the region.
In the second scenario, the expansion of Pakistan’s military and security relations with the Arab countries of the region and Turkey could pave the way for the creation of a collective regional structure involving Iran, ultimately leading to a region free of an effective US military and security presence.
In the third scenario, which would be particularly unlikely and costly for Pakistan, closer ties between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey raise concerns in Tehran. Proxy tensions in Afghanistan or Balochistan intensify, while border cooperation is disrupted. Nevertheless, the costs of a direct war prevent a large-scale military confrontation, and the two sides manage tensions through diplomatic channels. Pakistan would then be forced to strike a more delicate balance among its partners and accept damage to its relations with Persian Gulf countries.
Overall, the Pakistan-Kuwait memorandum is neither a sign of an inevitable confrontation with Iran nor merely a technical agreement. Rather, the document reflects Pakistan’s efforts to turn itself into a central player in the emerging security architecture of the Middle East, where Iran’s consolidation as the region’s dominant power, Persian Gulf’s security vacuum and Islamabad’s economic needs are closely intertwined.