US secondary sanctions unlikely to disrupt Turkey-Iran ties
By Delaram Ahmadi
Staff writer
After the military operation against Iran failed to deliver the results Washington had sought, the US has now shifted its focus back to economic pressure. While economic sanctions have already been imposed on Iran in their most severe forms, the US now appears to be seeking to expand secondary sanctions and put pressure on Tehran’s trading partners. One of these important partners is Turkey. International affairs expert Rahman Ghahramanpour told Iran Daily that Ankara, which is pursuing a policy of strategic autonomy, is unlikely to fully implement the new sanctions, but will also not go so far as to damage its relations with the West.
IRAN DAILY: What is Turkey’s likely response to the US threat of secondary sanctions? Would Ankara be willing to scale back its economic and trade ties with Iran?
GHAHRAMANPOUR: Regarding Turkey’s likely behavior, it can be pointed out that the country has generally not fully enforced such sanctions in the past. Turkey has a broader policy of implementing sanctions imposed by international organizations, specifically the United Nations. On that basis, there is a strong possibility that Turkey will not fully enforce these new US sanctions.
At the same time, Turkey is pursuing a policy of strategic autonomy, and the US and the West have, to some extent, accepted this policy. Therefore, the likelihood of the US putting very strong pressure on Turkey to fully implement these sanctions or comply with Washington’s demands is relatively low.
Could the sale of US fighter jets to Turkey affect Ankara’s calculations regarding sanctions on Iran? Could Turkey’s dependence on the US in the defense sector make the country more vulnerable to Washington’s pressure to reduce its economic ties with Iran?
Turkey has been strengthening its military and defense industries for several years, particularly as a result of the policies pursued by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Today, Turkey exports military equipment, particularly Bayraktar drones, to several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and various other countries.
What Turkey is seeking to purchase is the F-35 fighter jet. Turkey was previously among the partners involved in producing some of the aircraft’s components, but the US later halted sales of the aircraft to Turkey following Ankara’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 system and pressure from the pro-Israel lobby.
Another issue that Germany and Europe have had, and continue to have, with arms sales to Turkey concerns the rights of Kurds, particularly the Turkish government’s treatment of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Germany has traditionally imposed restrictions on the sale of advanced weapons to Turkey in this regard.
Therefore, Turkey has reduced its dependence on US and German weapons in recent years, while turning to strengthening its domestic defense industry on the one hand and finding new suppliers, such as Spain and Britain, on the other.
As a result, the US does not currently have much room to put pressure on Turkey from this angle. On this basis, it can be said that Turkey will probably resist US pressure to some extent.
However, one point needs to be considered. In the case of Halkbank and the US sanctions against the bank, as well as the fine imposed by Washington, the issue of circumventing sanctions on Iran became a problem for the Turkish government in a sense, and this issue is still ongoing in Turkey.
Therefore, it can be said that in the public sphere, this issue may prompt Turkish officials to exercise greater caution, even without US pressure and contrary to previous trends.
Turkey remains dependent on Iranian gas to meet part of its energy needs. What challenges does Turkey face in this regard, and to what extent can it replace Iranian gas?
The Iran-Turkey gas pipeline is an important issue in bilateral relations. The initial contract expired, and the two countries renewed it. Turkey wanted Iran to sell its gas at a lower price. At the time, the Turks were also trying to reduce their dependence on Iranian gas if they could. Ultimately, however, their calculations led them to continue purchasing gas from Iran for various reasons.
Therefore, this issue has now become an established part of Iran-Turkey relations. The US is unlikely to pressure Turkey to stop purchasing gas from Iran because Washington also knows that Turkey needs the gas and that the pipeline and necessary infrastructure are already in place.
The Turks have always emphasized a policy of good-neighborliness, and this is a principle they have consistently pursued in their regional and foreign policies. It appears that Western countries and the US have also sought to accept this policy. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the US would put additional pressure on Ankara to stop buying gas from Iran.
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