Economic pressure cannot guarantee US political gains in Iran
By Delaram Ahmadi
Staff writer
As the Iran-US conflict approaches its six-month mark and efforts to reach a broader settlement remain stalled, US President Donald Trump has announced what he described as an “Economic D-Day” against Iran. He has vowed to pursue “unprecedented isolation” of Iran and called on US allies to join Washington in stepping up economic pressure on Tehran. However, economic analyst Amin Mokarrami said such pressure does not necessarily produce the political outcome Washington seeks, arguing that Iran will also find ways to adapt, as it has done for years.
IRAN DAILY: How realistic is Washington’s expectation that such measures can force Iran to change its policies?
MOKARRAMI: Trump’s announcement represents a significant escalation of an economic pressure strategy that Washington has pursued for years. He is now threatening not only Iranian entities but also foreign banks, businesses, airports, government bodies and other institutions that provide Iran with what he calls an economic lifeline. His references to oil smuggling, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies suggest an attempt to make Iran’s external trade and financial channels more difficult to use.
Iran continues to face high inflation, pressure on household purchasing power, weaker business activity and tight government finances. Restrictions on oil revenues and access to foreign currency can make these challenges more difficult for households whose incomes have lagged behind prices.
But economic pressure should not be confused with economic collapse, nor should sanctions be assumed to produce political capitulation. Iran has a large domestic market, a substantial productive base and years of experience operating under sanctions. Its economy has repeatedly adjusted to restrictions that Washington hoped would change Iran’s political calculations. The latest measures may increase costs, but they do not automatically give Washington the political leverage it seeks.
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