60-day deadline carries ...
Page 1
Based on the experience of the past three wars, the continued operation of US bases means creating a security predicament for Iran, the consequences of which spill over into the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf and, consequently, into regional countries.
This situation will end only when the cost of the US and Israel returning to war against Iran exceeds the benefits. But this balance is inherently fragile, because any incident can alter the calculations.
Can the end of the ceasefire and the escalation of tensions between Lebanon and Israel be linked, or are these two separate developments? Could these tensions be seen as a US tool for putting pressure on Iran without engaging in military confrontation on Iranian territory?
Israel’s aggressive actions toward Lebanon should be analyzed on two levels. One is the historical level, as well as the opportunities and threats arising from geography, while the other concerns the ongoing regional war and the war between the US-Zionist-Arab axis and the Resistance Axis.
On the one hand, the intensification of attacks and Israel’s continued efforts to occupy southern Lebanon are part of Israel’s seven-decade effort to expand its geographical reach in the region.
On the other hand, they are aimed at disrupting the synergy among the Resistance Axis in the ongoing war against Iran.
For this reason, the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire period could provide Israel with another pretext to step up operations in southern Lebanon.
Therefore, from a logical standpoint, developments in Lebanon cannot be viewed merely as a bilateral crisis between Israel and Hezbollah.
If Israel intensifies its attacks in Lebanon, we will probably see another round of escalation on the Iranian front.
As a result, one entirely plausible scenario is that Israel will use the opportunity created by the deadlock in Iran-US negotiations to increase pressure on Lebanon. But not only Iran; the other components of the Resistance Axis should also not remain indifferent to the continuation of aggression against Lebanon.