Iran’s new grand ...
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But its replacement has yet to emerge.
The future regional order will probably be neither entirely American nor led by Iran. Instead, it is likely to be a multilayered and competitive order in which the United States remains a player, China takes on a greater economic role, Iran seeks to consolidate its regional position, and the Arab countries play a more independent role.
The “Foreign Affairs” article reminds us of one important point: Contrary to many predictions, the Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated a strong capacity for adaptation and strategic reconstruction. However, assessing Iran’s future requires distinguishing between two concepts: the power of resistance and the power of development.
Iran has shown that it can withstand pressure, but the next stage in becoming a sustainable power requires establishing a link between security, the economy and society.
For this reason, the “new grand strategy of Iran” should not be seen as a complete break with the past. Rather, it should be viewed as a new stage in the evolution of an existing strategy: a shift from advancing revolutionary ideals abroad toward preserving strategic depth; a shift from confrontation toward managing competition; and, finally, a shift from pure ideology toward a combination of ideology and national interests.
But the future of this strategy hinges on one fundamental question:
Can Iran turn its geopolitical position and security capabilities into economic power, popular support and sustainable regional influence?
The answer to this question will determine not only Iran’s future, but also the security architecture of the Persian Gulf over the next decade.