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If the conflict continues to escalate, how likely is direct Israeli involvement, and under what circumstances might Tel Aviv choose to enter the conflict?
The possibility of Israel entering the conflict directly cannot be ruled out. However, it is important to note that despite repeated statements by Israeli officials about continuing the war against Iran, one of the main reasons behind the previous ceasefire was Israel's inability to sustain simultaneous military operations on both the Iranian and Lebanese fronts.
At present, Israel is already fighting alongside the United States against Iran at an unofficial level. However, direct Israeli involvement in the current confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz could further expand the conflict across the region. It should also be borne in mind that as long as the fighting remains concentrated in the Persian Gulf, overt Israeli intervention would be highly sensitive for regional states.
Under the current circumstances, Israel appears to be contributing instead through other dimensions of hybrid warfare against Iran, including cyber operations and cognitive warfare. Any overt expansion of the war through direct Israeli intervention, however, would likely draw resistance groups into the conflict and once again broaden the scope of the war across the region.