End of Iran-US diplomacy, worst possible outcome for both sides, world
By Delaram Ahmadi
Staff writer
Tensions between Iran and the United States have flared up once again. This time, however, Washington has gone beyond limited military action by revoking the temporary suspension of Iran's oil sanctions. US President Donald Trump has also spoken of the end of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, although no official announcement has been made. These developments have once again cast doubt on the durability of any agreement between Tehran and Washington, leaving the future of diplomacy shrouded in uncertainty. Speaking to Iran Daily, international affairs expert Nozar Shafiei said that if diplomacy is ultimately set aside, the next option would be war—the worst possible outcome not only for Iran and the United States but also for the world. Both sides, he argued, should abandon the notion of gaining the upper hand and compromise.
IRAN DAILY: Given the recent developments, how do you assess the prospects for continued negotiations between Iran and the United States? Is diplomacy still a viable path forward?
SHAFIEI: Overall, Iran-US relations remain highly fragile. Although the two countries have been at odds for 47 years and such a longstanding dispute cannot be resolved overnight, the hope for progress diminishes as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to rise. Naturally, if the two sides genuinely seek to resolve their differences, they should behave in a way that minimizes friction. Instead, despite the existing memorandum of understanding, both countries appear to be moving along a path that could lead to further escalation. While it has generally been assumed that bilateral relations, despite their ups and downs, were gradually moving forward, last night's developments demonstrated that the road toward normalizing relations is, in fact, highly challenging. Obstacles exist on both sides, in Iran as well as in the United States, and this is hardly conducive to reducing tensions.
On the contrary, de-escalation requires both parties to send signals that reflect a genuine willingness and motivation to resolve their disputes.
Diplomacy never completely disappears from relations between states. Even under the most difficult circumstances, it can continue behind closed doors. Nevertheless, a halt in diplomacy at this stage would be an extremely alarming signal. If either Iran or the United States were to declare that diplomacy has ended or announce that the Iran-US MOU has been suspended, it would amount to a significant step backward—and some signs of that are already visible. One example is the US Treasury Department's decision to reverse the easing of oil-related restrictions on Iran.
These developments send a negative message about the future of Iran-US relations. Even at this moment, it appears that diplomacy is in its final stages. If diplomacy is ultimately taken off the table, the next option is war—and war would be the worst possible outcome for both Iran and the United States.
Iran should not assume it can easily force the United States out of the equation, nor should Washington believe it can easily bring Iran to its knees. If the current crisis is not managed, the world may once again face a conflict whose consequences could be even more severe than those of the 40-day war. The ceasefire and the MOU that followed were themselves the product of the devastating consequences of that conflict. If another war breaks out now, however, the world will confront it with greater preparedness, but ironically, that very sense of preparedness could draw Iran and the United States in particular—and the region more broadly—into a confrontation with no clear end in sight. Such a scenario would be extremely dangerous for the world.
How seriously should Donald Trump’s remarks be taken? Does it signal a genuine shift in US policy, or is it better understood as part of Washington's political and negotiating tactics?
It is still necessary to wait and see what other developments unfold. For example, during his speech at the NATO summit, Trump did not repeat that statement about the end of the MOU. Had he truly intended to make it official, he might well have reiterated it on that occasion.
However, the United States is expected to carry out another round of strikes, and that could once again trigger a chain reaction, further escalating the crisis. Wars are not always controllable. There is often an assumption that military actions can be carefully managed, but they can suddenly spiral out of control.
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