2026 geopolitical earthquake; Iranian crisis as a catalyst for multipolarity
By Josef Kraus
Professor at Masaryk University
& Mohammad Hossein Vahedi
Political philosophy scholar
The security crisis that engulfed the Middle East in the early months of 2026 is far more than a local flashpoint; it signals a fundamental shift in the international order. From an analytical perspective, it is imperative to look beneath the surface of conventional narratives regarding nuclear proliferation or regional containment. What we have witnessed was not merely an isolated act of aggression, but a calculated "geopolitical realignment," designed primarily to counter the growing global dominance of the People’s Republic of China.
A core hypothesis emerging from the Iranian academic community, strongly aligned with the school of political realism, characterizes this conflict as a "proxy strike against Beijing." In early 2026, facing domestic polarization and the relative decline of its global hegemony, the United States executed a high-risk maneuver. The objective went beyond regime change in Tehran; it was an attempt to seize the "energy jugular" of the Chinese economy. The Persian Gulf remains a vital artery for Beijing. Had Washington achieved a swift victory and installed a compliant government in Tehran, it would have placed its hand directly on the valve of China's energy security. However, this attempt to capture global supply chains was built on a complete miscalculation of Iran’s institutional stability and national resilience.
The defining moment that rewrote the rules of the game was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ability to effectively—and surprisingly easily—block this maritime chokepoint exposed the deep fragility of the modern "just-in-time" delivery economy. The geopolitical consequences of this blockade, which disrupted not only oil markets but also vital flows of helium, ammonia, and chemical fertilizers, were more catastrophic than any sanctions regime in recent decades. We have entered an era of "economic realignment" in which Tehran has transformed from a passive target of Western restrictions into an active "sanctioning power." It has been proven that this physical blockade is a far more devastating tool of statecraft than the financial exclusions of the SWIFT system.
For Europe, this conflict served as a painful awakening. The transatlantic bond was pushed to the brink of collapse, as it became clear that the objectives of the US and Israel in the region were in direct conflict with European economic survival. The European Union, long immersed in the inertia of American hegemony, was effectively forced toward strategic autonomy by the intensity of Iran’s military response. There emerged an understanding that "borrowed security" from Washington is unreliable and carries the potential to be sacrificed for the narrow geopolitical goals of the White House. Europe—a continent lacking significant energy resources, particularly in its western regions—has historically been dependent on US energy and support. Yet, unexpectedly, the continent finds itself in a state of "strategic solitude." Europe is currently struggling to secure supplies on two fronts: Ukraine and Iran. While the nature of these political conflicts differs, the US has suddenly left Europe to fend for itself. Washington's unilateralist policies will ultimately drive the continent toward self-reliance and a pivot toward China.
Europe's pivot to China could have profound consequences for US foreign policy. As previously noted, the US launched the assault on Iran primarily to strike at China’s oil supply and hegemony. Ostensibly, the US claimed the operation was to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, yet the reality possessed multiple dimensions. We cannot ignore Iran’s geopolitical capacity. Iran shares deeply intertwined relations with China across various domains. Just as Iran’s vast geopolitical and geoeconomic capacity turned it into the "bridge to victory" during the Second World War, it has now become the central arena for the competition between China and the US for future global hegemony—a reality underscored even as Donald Trump projects the American flag over the Iranian map on his social media platforms.