June 2026 US-Iran agreement between desire & reality
By Ecaterina Matoi
Scholar of Middle Eastern politics
If both the United States and Iran had something in common, in the context of the conflict they remained entangled in, that would be the necessity of a permanent agreement. Indeed, US President Donald Trump renewed hope with the declaration of an expected total victory on Iran within two weeks, and thus an imminent agreement. Likewise, although proclaiming battlefield victory and cautioning against draft IAEA resolution’s potential as justification for aggression, the Islamic Republic of Iran is signaling a resolute commitment to peace talks.
However, beyond separate desiderates for a peace deal, anchored in different realities, and obvious overstretch on both sides, there is little progress in sustainably aligning the so-called objectives, themselves fluid policy vehicles aimed at maximizing post-war benefits. This state of affairs prompted relentless Pakistani mediators to admit that while Israeli penetrations in southern Lebanon may be stopped, a definitive agreement still requires time.
Iran proclaims as an end-goal the region’s peace. This is not a vague concept whatsoever, but a true regional peace would have structural implications, particularly in the context of Israel’s territorial and influence expansion. Furthermore, even if genuinely committed, the US alone might not be in the position to settle a process in which former Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) partners held important stakes.
Moreover, Iran’s understanding of a regional peace has, besides clear demands, certain characteristics that have not been agreed upon yet at regional and international level: while the US is rerouting petroleum and gas flows at global level, Iran certainly maintains that its sovereign right to address particularly the Asian markets is not negotiable.
Hypothesizing that the US remains committed at least to a self-styled regional peace, its reality is much more complex, and entails significant competition from emerging economies. Especially in this context, it remains difficult, although not entirely impossible, to project a scenario of the largest superpower finalizing a multi-billion war with the simplest peace agreement.
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