Iran eyes two-stage ...
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Based on unofficial reports regarding the exchange of messages between Iran and the United States and their content aimed at reaching a political agreement, two points can be inferred. First, Tehran has not introduced a strategic shift in its negotiations or proposals. Second, Iran continues to present its proposals within a fixed framework, making adjustments to the content each time without altering the overall structure.
Iran is pursuing a two-stage negotiation model with the United States. Within this framework, both sides would, in the first phase, reach agreement on general principles. The focus would be on ending the war, changing the governance of the Strait of Hormuz, reopening the strait, and ending the US naval blockade of Iran.
These general principles would also define clear boundaries for Iran’s nuclear and non-nuclear limitations in exchange for Washington’s commitments to lift sanctions and restrictions. In the second phase, Iran and the United States would move on to negotiations over the details.
Amid repeated US threats to return to military escalation if negotiations fail, reports have emerged about Iran’s focus on undersea cables in the Strait of Hormuz as a new lever of power. How effective could this tool be in strengthening Iran’s deterrence?
Iran’s conduct in the region has already demonstrated that, when it comes to defending its existence in a wartime environment, the Islamic Republic does not recognize any red lines for itself. Furthermore, many agreements and arrangements that function under normal conditions no longer hold in wartime, prompting a reassessment of frameworks based on new realities.
During the 40-day war, one of Iran’s strategies was to maximize the cost of war for opposing parties, both directly and indirectly, using every available tool to achieve this objective. The same approach is likely to be carried forward.
Undersea cables in the Strait of Hormuz, much like the strait itself, could become instruments through which the Islamic Republic exerts pressure on opposing parties.