Trump-Xi meeting will revolve around Iran
The fate of war, or the continuation of the cease-fire between Iran and the United States, remains indeterminate. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar has announced that Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani met with Marco Rubio, the American secretary of state, and Steve Witkoff, the American envoy for Middle Eastern affairs, in Miami. During this meeting, the strategic partnership between the two countries, as well as the regional situation and Qatar’s mediation for the attenuation of tensions, were discussed and examined. Qatar’s endeavor toward mediation between Iran and the United States, comes at a time when the principal loci of tension between the parties remain unresolved, and it remains unclear what decision Israel will make regarding the continuation of the war. The existing circumstances are accompanied by questions, including: Will mediation and negotiation exert influence upon the current trajectory? What is the plan of the United States regarding war or peace? Will Israel, independently and without preamble, orchestrate a new attack against Iran? Mohsen Jalilvand, professor of international relations and senior foreign policy analyst, and Reza Mirabian, a regional affairs expert, have responded to these questions below:
Trump irrational, master of surprise
By Mohsen Jalilvand
Expert on international affairs
From my perspective, in general, holding Iran-US negotiations and reaching an agreement is not feasible. Let’s examine this matter from several angles. The first point is that between Iran and the United States, there exists an exceptionally profound divergence. This divergence is far greater than what could be resolved within the framework of a simple memorandum of understanding. Another issue is that, as long as, from the perspective of the Israelis, Iran’s nuclear program threatens the existence of Israel and its missile program and the Axis of Resistance threaten the security of Israel, the subject of negotiation with Iran will, fundamentally, remain devoid of relevance.
Before anything else, Iran’s nuclear program, missile program, and the issue of the Axis of Resistance must be resolved. Israel’s strategic designs are entirely manifest; after the October 7 attacks, they initiated two wars against us, and the cease-fire memorandum concerning Lebanon is being violated every day through incursions into Lebanon and attacks against Hezbollah. Regarding the Gaza Strip, similar actions are currently underway. So long as these behaviors continue, rest assured that neither the United States, nor Israel, nor the Western world, will reconcile with Iran.
The probability of war is higher
Iran desires, through various methods, to disrupt the game. One of the most significant methods for disrupting the game, is closing the Strait of Hormuz.
But in general, with consideration of all indications and existing circumstances, the probability of attaining an agreement with which both parties would be satisfied is not high. The probability of renewed war is substantially higher than the probability of no war. The intensity of the attacks and their dimensions, however, depend upon Iran’s reaction. In reality, if following a renewed American attack, particularly in the southern parts of the country, Iran’s reaction is extremely severe, war will assume expansive dimensions.
Israel shall not attack Iran unilaterally. The operations of these two parties, should they occur, will be of a combined nature. The Americans will intervene with severe assaults and a high level of destruction, whereas actions such as precision targeting and targeted assassinations will be executed by Israel. The Americans are habituated to attacking with high volume and immense intensity.
Upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi
I believe that more than 50% of the substantive content of this upcoming meeting, will concern Iran, and the situation in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf will be discussed.
Let us not forget this point regarding Donald Trump and his decisions, particularly his wartime decisions, that they are usually irrational actions that astonish others. And Donald Trump is a master of surprise. To say that, for logical reasons, Donald Trump will not attack, is erroneous. If one intended to analyze Donald Trump’s actions according to normal logic, fundamentally, there would never have been any surprise. From my perspective, war is inescapable, and its probability is exceedingly high because Israel seeks a guarantee for the preservation of its existence against threats from Iran.
The article first appeared in
Persian on Fararu.
First meeting where Trump comes
empty-handed
By Reza Mirabian
Expert on regional affairs
While certain foreign media outlets have claimed that the United States is inclined toward Qatar playing the role of mediator, and considering that other countries such as Pakistan, Oman, and China, are also being presented as mediators, I think the selection of Qatar as mediator, at present, possesses no substantive relevance because with consideration of recent events, it cannot function as an impartial mediator. Iran has retaliated against American bases in Qatar during the last two conflicts with the US. So, even if this idea has been put forward, it appears that the Qataris proposed it. At present, mediation between Iran and the United States is Pakistan’s responsibility.
We should not forget that American air bases in the Persian Gulf are located in Qatar. Therefore, Qatar cannot possess a neutral position regarding mediation, but it is natural that the United States would desire Qatar to be present as mediator. However, that would not be acceptable to us.
Iran has not expressed a position in this regard, and there is no necessity for it to express an opinion on this matter either because the subject does not possess sufficient value for Iran to issue commentary regarding it. When Qatar was active as mediator, conditions were normal and not like the present circumstances.
Similarly, Foreign Minister Araghchi’s trip to China took place at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, and was within the framework of strategic relations between the Islamic Republic and China. Naturally, before the meeting between the United States and China, China wants to hear the latest regional situation and the most recent regional conditions from the words of Iran’s foreign minister, and to go to its own meeting with the United States fully prepared.
Do not forget that the Americans, during this upcoming Thursday trip and in the meeting with Xi Jinping, for the first time, are empty-handed, unlike the past, when they could possess instruments of pressure against China.
China will insist upon the positions and rightfulness of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and upon the fact that the United States has transgressed against the Islamic Republic and violated international law and human rights. They have also declared this explicitly. China, as a friendly country and strategic partner of Iran, can articulate our principled positions before the Americans and insist upon them.
Regarding the future of Iran’s negotiations with the US, one cannot speak on the basis of speculation. The events in the Strait of Hormuz during recent days, in reality, were an issue that the Americans created in order to impose pressure upon us and to possess a trump card against us in negotiations. But their plans did not materialize, and they neither acquired a trump card, nor succeeded in imposing pressure upon Iran; on the contrary, they themselves departed from the Strait of Hormuz in a considerably more disadvantageous position. In reality, the Americans possess nothing that can function as an instrument of pressure against Iran.
The article first appeared in Persian on ILNA.